Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:38:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0C 0x0c55…9e26 crypto 408 markets active 1h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$39,338 (-4%) realized −$37,474 · open −$2,214
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate93%367W / 28L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,540per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$7,518now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days−$627
14 days+$792
30 days+$806
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% +$4,184
other 41% −$44,725
world 2% +$827
politics 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -7.5% -16.3% 82% 0% -11.8%
≤30d 64 -0.7% -10.2% 95% 2% -8.9%
≤90d 213 +1.2% -8.4% 98% 4% -8.0%
all 395 -1.4% -10.8% 93% 8% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 8% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 3% -21.2%
15% -27.1% 2% -28.8%
20% -34.2% 2% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$3,009) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$3,094 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$7,518
Realized−$37,474
Unrealized−$2,214
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses367 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions13
Markets (closed)395 / 408
History coverage250d
Avg bet$2,540
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 395 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 85¢ 72¢ $1,981 $1,677 −$304 (-15%)
Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $864 $880 +$17 (+2%)
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 15¢ 24¢ $522 $835 +$313 (+60%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 73¢ 51¢ $1,174 $820 −$354 (-30%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 88¢ 90¢ $610 $626 +$15 (+2%)
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $607 $616 +$8 (+1%)
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 93¢ $579 $557 −$22 (-4%)
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $504 $512 +$8 (+2%)
Unit FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 79¢ 79¢ $298 $298 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $226 $233 +$7 (+3%)
Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale? Yes 89¢ 8¢ $2,001 $168 −$1,833 (-92%)
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by June 30? No 88¢ 60¢ $234 $161 −$74 (-31%)
Tabi FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 91¢ 94¢ $132 $137 +$4 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 14 $4,085 +$53 +1%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 13 $1,045 −$1,045 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $3,060 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $2,177 +$44 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $473 +$13 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $691 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $3,002 +$68 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $3,003 +$30 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $4,001 +$168 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $228 +$5 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $3,003 +$30 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1,888 +$97 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $3,003 +$30 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $2,628 +$58 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $3,001 +$12 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $887 +$13 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $893 +$9 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $1,591 +$49 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,057 +$33 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $3,001 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $3,014 +$106 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $113 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $250 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $457 +$34 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $3,014 +$52 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $3,003 +$30 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $3,023 +$43 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $3,025 +$65 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $3,009 +$90 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $3,002 +$14 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $3,990 +$86 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $3,970 +$235 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $3,004 +$36 +1%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 01 $62 +$4 +6%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 01 $215 +$17 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1,098 +$40 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $2,000 +$128 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,957 +$89 +2%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 31? Jun 01 $534 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $3,003 +$30 +1%
Citrea FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 28 $806 +$28 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $5,037 +$380 +8%
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 27 $429 +$4 +1%
Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch? May 27 $1,883 +$19 +1%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 19-25? May 26 $1,002 +$19 +2%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid May 25 $1,232 +$45 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $3,016 +$124 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 22? May 22 $3,003 +$30 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 21? May 22 $3,028 +$71 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 22 $183 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $147 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $4,138 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $4,085 1h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $466 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $1,829 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $1,065 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $166 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $3,060 3d
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $504 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,198 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $980 3d
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $551 3d
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $389 4d
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 4d
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $19 4d
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 4d
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 4d
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 4d
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 4d
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $1 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $99 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $3 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $16 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $58 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $64 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $91 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $62 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $44 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $33 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,518.32 · official $7,518.32 (match) · 1894 history records