Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:39:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0C 0x0c55…0e10 world 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$22 (-2%) realized −$23 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days+$49
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% −$57
sports 5% +$52
politics 5% +$1
crypto 3% −$18
other 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -33.6% -39.9% 33% 33% +44.1%
≤90d 16 -7.2% -16.0% 56% 50% -11.6%
all 16 -7.2% -16.0% 56% 50% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 50% -11.6%
10% -24.1% 31% -20.1%
15% -31.4% 19% -27.8%
20% -38.1% 19% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$40 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage78d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $60 +$59 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -94%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $60 +$7 +12%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $124 +$20 +16%
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? Apr 16 $100 +$25 +25%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 14 $50 −$6 -11%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 14 $100 −$32 -32%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $65 +$86 +132%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 07 $50 +$52 +104%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 07 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 02 $5 −$5 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $50 +$7 +14%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 29 $10 +$2 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 24h
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL Yes 100¢ $119 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 14d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY Yes 50¢ $60 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 58¢ $200 59d
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $67 60d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $93 60d
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? SELL Yes 99¢ $125 60d
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $60 60d
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? BUY Yes 79¢ $100 60d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 60d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? SELL Yes 30¢ $44 61d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? SELL Yes $20 61d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? BUY Yes 34¢ $50 61d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? BUY Yes 18¢ $50 61d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $30 68d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? SELL Yes 22¢ $48 68d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? SELL Yes 96¢ $96 68d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? SELL Yes 76¢ $102 68d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $24 68d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $21 68d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $35 69d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 69d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t SELL Yes 68¢ $51 69d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? BUY Yes 23¢ $50 69d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? SELL Yes 33¢ $55 69d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $50 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 74d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $57 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.71 · official $20.71 (match) · 38 history records