Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:02:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
0C 0x0c59…c00e other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$227 (+12%) realized +$226 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$462now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$126
7 days+$229
14 days+$211
30 days+$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$136
sports 31% +$173
crypto 5% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +46.6% +32.6% 86% 86% +44.2%
≤30d 19 +15.5% +4.5% 58% 58% +2.3%
≤90d 19 +15.5% +4.5% 58% 58% +2.3%
all 19 +15.5% +4.5% 58% 58% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.5% 58% +2.3%
10% -5.5% 58% -7.5%
15% -14.7% 47% -16.4%
20% -23.0% 21% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$48 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$462
Realized+$226
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)19 / 23
History coverage12d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $150 $129 −$21 (-14%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 88¢ $50 $63 +$13 (+27%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 80¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+19%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -94%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $53 +$111 +210%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $52 +$17 +32%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $52 +$18 +34%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $105 +$61 +58%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $52 +$20 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $52 +$21 +40%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $53 −$25 -47%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $105 +$46 +44%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$47 +219%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $53 −$36 -68%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $52 −$26 -51%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $232 +$195 +84%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $313 −$25 -8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $106 −$98 -93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $105 +$51 +49%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $26 +$10 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $53 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $107 28h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $52 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $53 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $53 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $105 6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $28 7d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $53 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $52 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $52 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $17 8d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $105 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 49¢ $26 8d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $21 8d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $52 8d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $52 8d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $52 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $52 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $53 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $52 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $21 9d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $105 9d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $260 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 9d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $26 9d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $53 9d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $105 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $106 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $105 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $461.80 · official $461.80 (match) · 47 history records