Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:41:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c64…be43 weather 1124 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$369 (-2%) realized −$311 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate67%820W / 400L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day43.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$840now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$334
7 days−$275
14 days−$411
30 days−$261
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 192 -36.0% -42.1% 46% 3% -14.0%
≤30d 418 -2.5% -11.8% 73% 3% -11.9%
≤90d 1220 +45.6% +31.8% 67% 21% -11.7%
all 1220 +45.6% +31.8% 67% 21% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +31.8% 21% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here +19.2% 17% -20.2%
15% +7.7% 14% -27.9%
20% -2.9% 12% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +64% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$840
Realized−$311
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses820 / 400
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1220 / 1124
History coverage59d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day43.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1220 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? No 98¢ 98¢ $79 $79 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $79 $79 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $77 $78 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $77 $78 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $77 $78 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $77 $78 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $77 $77 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? No 97¢ 98¢ $77 $77 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 15? No 99¢ 97¢ $77 $75 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 15? No 95¢ 98¢ $69 $71 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 14? No 96¢ 100¢ $54 $57 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 15? No 95¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on April 4? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 23? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on May 15? No 96¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on April 24? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 12? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 23? No 91¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 12? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on April 28? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 25? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 21? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 23? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on May 1? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on April 4? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 12 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 5? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C or below on April Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on April 7? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 13? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -107%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on April 6? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 17? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 4? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Ap Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on April 12? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 13? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ap Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on April 12? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -39%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 13? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 67°F or below on April 4? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 12? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +170%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on April Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on April 4? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C or below on April 14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on April 5? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 4? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on April 16 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 6? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on April 7? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 4? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 16? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on April 5? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on April 16? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 13? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -40%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 12? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Ap Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 13? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 12? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 12? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 8? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 4? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 5? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Ap Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 14? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $5 55m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $79 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $79 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $69 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $77 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $77 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $77 7h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $77 8h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $77 13h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $77 15h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $7 16h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $52 16h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $77 17h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $7 18h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $77 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $16 18h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $77 18h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $54 18h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 BUY No 99¢ $77 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $51 26h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $76 31h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $60 31h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $38 31h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $13 32h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $13 32h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $12 32h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $49 34h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $76 39h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $76 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $839.56 · official $839.56 (match) · 3500 history records