Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:05:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
0C 0x0c66…f1b3 other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$14 (+10%) realized +$11 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate61%14W / 9L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$5
sports 5% +$8
world 2% +$2
crypto 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +23.2% +11.5% 64% 59% +1.8%
≤30d 23 +17.9% +6.7% 61% 57% -0.3%
≤90d 23 +17.9% +6.7% 61% 57% -0.3%
all 23 +17.9% +6.7% 61% 57% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.7% 57% -0.3%
10% -3.5% 48% -9.8%
15% -12.9% 43% -18.6%
20% -21.4% 30% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses14 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)23 / 36
History coverage7d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+31%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 72¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 68¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+80%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 69¢ 68¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 56¢ 53¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 46¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 38¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +38%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$7 +237%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +441%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 +$5 +61%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$4 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +41%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $2 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 26h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 26h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 2d
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 56¢ $3 3d
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 69¢ $4 3d
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 3d
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 50¢ $3 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $4 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $19 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $4 4d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $4 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $5 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.96 · official $38.77 (match) · 54 history records