Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:28:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c67…1142 crypto 562 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (96 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$53 (+1%) realized +$27 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%257W / 267L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day96.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$97
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$63
sports 14% +$51
other 13% −$54
world 4% −$17
economics 1% −$3
weather 1% −$5
tech 0% −$1
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (96 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 326 +2.4% -7.4% 57% 53% -6.0%
≤30d 524 -10.9% -19.4% 49% 44% -9.0%
≤90d 524 -10.9% -19.4% 49% 44% -9.0%
all 524 -10.9% -19.4% 49% 44% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover96.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.4% 44% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -27.1% 41% -17.7%
15% -34.1% 37% -25.7%
20% -40.6% 20% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses257 / 267
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions39
Markets (closed)524 / 562
History coverage11d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day96.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 524 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Up 77¢ 100¢ $30 $39 +$9 (+30%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Down 0¢ 66¢ $0 $28 +$28 (+0%)
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 21? No 26¢ 90¢ $4 $12 +$9 (+238%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 91¢ 87¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 36¢ 40¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? No 40¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? No 39¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 38¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? No 33¢ 32¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 33¢ 32¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? No 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 37¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 23¢ 24¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? No 87¢ 88¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? No 89¢ 90¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? No 93¢ 92¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? No 95¢ 94¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? No 86¢ 86¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? No 86¢ 86¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? No 88¢ 88¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? No 92¢ 92¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 94¢ 94¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? No 89¢ 88¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 195 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +34%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$12 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$12 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$17 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$31 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$10 +34%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $2 +$2 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$12 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $28 +$14 +50%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 25? Jun 20 $8 −$4 -47%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9 −$4 -44%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$4 +79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? Jun 20 $7 −$2 -23%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Jun 20 $4 −$1 -14%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $1 +$7 +596%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $53 +$21 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $46 −$45 -97%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $2 −$1 -74%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $1 +$2 +162%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$19 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$21 +41%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 $0 +4%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $43 −$42 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$18 +36%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 20? Jun 20 $25 −$6 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $9 +$9 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$21 +40%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 20 $3 +$6 +243%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 $0 -8%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $2 +$2 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $53 +$16 +31%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $1 +$1 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $42 −$42 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $48 +$25 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 19 $6 −$2 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $31 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 20m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 28m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $31 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $30 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $6 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $17 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $15 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Detroit Tigers 75¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $30 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 94¢ $3 3h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY No 86¢ $3 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 86¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $28 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 25? SELL No 6¢ $1 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 43¢ $5 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.56 · official $185.17 · 1301 history records