Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:56:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c6c…755b other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$203 (-23%) realized −$228 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$54
14 days−$209
30 days−$209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$80
sports 13% −$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-62.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -76.3% -78.6% 20% 20% -64.2%
≤30d 13 -58.7% -62.6% 31% 31% -33.5%
≤90d 13 -58.7% -62.6% 31% 31% -33.5%
all 13 -58.7% -62.6% 31% 31% -33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.6% 31% -33.5%
10% -66.2% 15% -39.8%
15% -69.5% 15% -45.7%
20% -72.5% 0% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -82% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$43 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized−$228
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage10d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 97¢ $80 $104 +$24 (+30%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 +$6 +18%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $207 −$205 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $91 −$83 -91%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $216 +$98 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $144 +$72 +50%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $81 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 3h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 3h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 5h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 6h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $207 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 5¢ $8 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $91 7d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 7d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $314 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $216 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $216 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $144 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.35 · official $110.92 (match) · 20 history records