Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:12:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c71…2e65 other 82 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$542 (-12%) realized +$9 · open −$551
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%24W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$3,547now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days−$11
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$560
crypto 2% +$6
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -14.5% -22.7% 38% 15% -4.1%
≤30d 56 -9.3% -17.9% 43% 38% -10.5%
≤90d 56 -9.3% -17.9% 43% 38% -10.5%
all 56 -9.3% -17.9% 43% 38% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 38% -10.5%
10% -25.8% 36% -19.1%
15% -32.9% 36% -26.9%
20% -39.5% 30% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$3,547
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$551
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses24 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions25
Markets (closed)56 / 82
History coverage22d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $737 $648 −$88 (-12%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $553 $478 −$75 (-14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $340 $396 +$56 (+16%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $323 $348 +$25 (+8%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 21¢ 15¢ $444 $319 −$124 (-28%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 22¢ 23¢ $245 $255 +$10 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $303 $215 −$88 (-29%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $190 $186 −$4 (-2%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $210 $167 −$43 (-21%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 78¢ $103 $121 +$18 (+17%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $91 $110 +$18 (+20%)
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 37¢ 29¢ $119 $93 −$26 (-22%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $270 $66 −$204 (-76%)
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $30 $14 −$16 (-55%)
Will Mike Maignan record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+16%)
Will Omar Marmoush score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 64¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+9%)
Will Declan Rice score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 50¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+37%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 60¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Dembele vs. Olise Dembele 48¢ 40¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 76¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 51¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Leroy Sané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $4 $0 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -3%
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $13 $0 -2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Virgil van Dijk score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 +$8 +158%
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 $0 -14%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +53%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +169%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +129%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Guatemala 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $19 +$7 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $17 +$3 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 09 $1 +$1 +93%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England win? Jun 07 $6 +$5 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 04 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 04 $2 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 04 $2 +$3 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 24¢ $36 20m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 22m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 2h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 2h
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 2d
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 2d
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $4 3d
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 56¢ $1 4d
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 20¢ $14 4d
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $1 4d
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 43¢ $13 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $20 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $46 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $92 5d
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup BUY Yes 37¢ $117 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $21 5d
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 27¢ $46 5d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $56 5d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $308 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,547.01 · official $3,547.01 (match) · 242 history records