Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:59:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0C
0x0c73…1a76
world · 43 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3,301 -30%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,431 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,063
Realized−$3,431
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses17 / 12
Open positions16
Markets (closed)29 / 43
History coverage64d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 16 History 29 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days−$3,252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 57¢ 64¢ $184 $205 +$22 (+12%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 86¢ 78¢ $171 $156 −$15 (-9%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 74¢ 80¢ $113 $121 +$8 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $105 $105 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $105 $99 −$5 (-5%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 86¢ 90¢ $85 $90 +$4 (+5%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes 77¢ 77¢ $61 $61 +$0 (+0%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? No 86¢ 84¢ $60 $60 −$1 (-1%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? No 70¢ 56¢ $72 $57 −$15 (-21%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 82¢ 99¢ $34 $41 +$7 (+21%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? No 88¢ 80¢ $44 $40 −$4 (-9%)
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? No 68¢ 50¢ $27 $20 −$7 (-25%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 0¢ 80¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+0%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 0¢ 79¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+0%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? No 73¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+36%)
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 91¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 43¢ 88¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+104%)
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Yes 84¢ 0¢ $3,519 $0 −$3,519 (-100%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? No 71¢ 0¢ $104 $0 −$104 (-100%)
Will Hong Kong have between 150-160mm of precipitation in April? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $189 $0 −$189 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 15? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027? No 39¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 20? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 13? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $89 +$11 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $4 +$3 +61%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $63 +$18 +28%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $2,304 +$96 +4%
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? May 20 $310 +$139 +45%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $3,540 −$3,519 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 15 $27 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $165 +$28 +17%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $104 −$104 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027? May 08 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Hong Kong have between 160-170mm of precipitation in April? May 04 $403 +$68 +17%
Will Hong Kong have between 130-140mm of precipitation in April? May 04 $22 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 18? May 02 $97 −$69 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 12? May 02 $436 +$119 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C or below on April 17 May 02 $22 +$63 +279%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 13? May 02 $8 +$8 +91%
SAVE Act becomes law by April 30, 2026? May 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Hong Kong have between 150-160mm of precipitation in April? Apr 29 $189 −$189 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 20? Apr 20 $49 −$10 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 19? Apr 19 $10 −$8 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 17? Apr 17 $199 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 17? Apr 17 $198 +$49 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 15? Apr 15 $11 +$17 +158%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 15? Apr 15 $22 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 13? Apr 14 $408 +$28 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 13? Apr 14 $1 +$1 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 13? Apr 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 12? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 11? Apr 11 $840 −$121 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 56% −$3,283
weather 21% +$69
world 17% −$110
other 6% −$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $9 44m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $2 44m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $3 45m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $19 45m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $15 45m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $4 47m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $6 47m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $6 47m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $17 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $18 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $13 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $1 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 85¢ $30 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 86¢ $30 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 67¢ $13 16h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 68¢ $14 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $8 22h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $42 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $8 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $35 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 88¢ $22 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 88¢ $22 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY Yes 78¢ $15 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY Yes 77¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+108.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +691.2% +615.9% 100% 100% +17.4%
≤30d 6 +337.1% +295.5% 83% 67% -56.8%
≤90d 29 +130.2% +108.3% 59% 41% -42.5%
all 29 +130.2% +108.3% 59% 41% -42.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +108.3% 41% -42.5%
10% +88.3% 31% -48.0%
15% +70.1% 24% -53.0%
20% +53.4% 17% -57.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,063.46 · official $1,061.95 (match) · 260 history records