Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:16:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0C 0x0c73…a856 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-2%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$4
tech 40% −$2
other 17% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -4.2% -13.3% 0% 0% -12.5%
≤30d 7 -3.9% -13.0% 43% 43% -14.4%
≤90d 7 -3.9% -13.0% 43% 43% -14.4%
all 7 -3.9% -13.0% 43% 43% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 43% -14.4%
10% -21.4% 29% -22.6%
15% -29.0% 14% -30.1%
20% -35.9% 0% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage20d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Jun 29 $29 −$2 -7%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 29 $109 −$2 -2%
England vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $114 −$4 -3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? SELL Yes 46¢ $27 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 47¢ $29 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $107 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $109 1h
England vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 93¢ $110 2h
England vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $114 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $9 17d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 19d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 19d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records