Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:36:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c73…6ab8 weather 108 markets active 16h ago coverage 890d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$47 (-1%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate31%34W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$186
14 days−$112
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$26
weather 12% −$26
crypto 12% −$5
politics 7% +$18
sports 4% −$2
other 1% −$28
tech 0% −$4
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +7.2% -3.0% 25% 18% -29.4%
≤30d 61 +12.3% +1.6% 30% 23% -19.4%
≤90d 71 +11.5% +0.9% 30% 23% -11.8%
all 108 +4.8% -5.2% 31% 27% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 27% -10.9%
10% -14.3% 24% -19.4%
15% -22.6% 20% -27.2%
20% -30.2% 19% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$9 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

890d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses34 / 74
Open positions0
Markets (closed)108 / 108
History coverage890d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 108 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 +$23 +155%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $120 −$16 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 +$22 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $6 −$2 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Jun 16 $14 −$13 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $14 −$13 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 −$17 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 +$20 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$52 +669%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $22 −$21 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $25 −$24 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $17 +$35 +209%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $19 +$18 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$52 +1976%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $22 −$21 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 +$22 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$34 +221%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 5? Jun 12 $15 −$6 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 5? Jun 12 $12 −$4 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 5? Jun 12 $15 −$7 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $11 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 16h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 76¢ $104 16h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 88¢ $120 25h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 45h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 45h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 45h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 46h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $14 46h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 46h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 46h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $13 46h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $14 46h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 84¢ $10 46h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 47h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 51¢ $16 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $22 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 310 history records