Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:00:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c73…68e7 sports 521 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$46,943 (-4%) realized −$46,849 · open −$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate73%376W / 142L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,412per market
Trades / day48.4pace
Fees−$5,721est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$10,932now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,551
7 days−$45,550
14 days−$35,169
30 days−$33,230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$47,015
other 11% −$2,609
crypto 4% −$1,089
world 0% +$277
politics 0% +$54
economics 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -31.9% -38.4% 44% 12% -18.1%
≤30d 280 -4.2% -13.4% 72% 32% -12.5%
≤90d 518 -2.2% -11.5% 73% 43% -13.2%
all 518 -2.2% -11.5% 73% 43% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 43% -13.2%
10% -20.0% 22% -21.5%
15% ← realistic here -27.7% 11% -29.1%
20% -34.8% 7% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$2,126) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$251 vs −$1,018 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$10,932
Realized−$46,849
Unrealized−$94
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses376 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$5,721
Open positions2
Markets (closed)518 / 521
History coverage64d
Avg bet$2,412
Trades / day48.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 518 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Under 97¢ 96¢ $8,026 $7,989 −$37 (-0%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? No 80¢ 78¢ $3,000 $2,944 −$56 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $10,042 +$353 +4%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $19,667 +$1,011 +5%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $2,045 −$295 -14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5,040 −$2,328 -46%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5,070 +$1,223 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $21,017 +$26 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $10,063 −$2,511 -25%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5,030 +$386 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10,668 −$968 -9%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $11,855 +$603 +5%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $10,063 +$625 +6%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $35,455 −$4,677 -13%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $16,145 +$778 +5%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $4,916 +$251 +5%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $20,101 +$1,477 +7%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5,041 −$323 -6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10,017 −$196 -2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10,686 +$499 +5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $13,295 +$1,004 +8%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $28,952 −$4,927 -17%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10,048 −$10,045 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10,054 +$396 +4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $12,835 +$641 +5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $8,289 −$399 -5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $22,818 −$14,567 -64%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $21,076 +$1,727 +8%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10,084 +$404 +4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5,755 −$799 -14%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $1,005 −$514 -51%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $1,007 −$835 -83%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2,068 +$224 +11%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $16,383 +$846 +5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5,033 +$362 +7%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $3,075 +$225 +7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,012 −$1,839 -91%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $7,308 −$3,873 -53%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-05-30? Jun 13 $677 −$677 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $205 −$205 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $206 −$206 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $308 −$308 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $480 −$480 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 13 $204 −$204 -100%
Panama vs. Dominican Republic: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $1,013 −$1,013 -100%
T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: Indonesia vs Nepal Jun 13 $4,566 −$2,512 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $9 13m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $7,630 13m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $36 13m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $280 14m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $73 14m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $3,018 15m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $9,370 17h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $49 17h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $48 17h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $19 17h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $57 17h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $498 17h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $20,678 17h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 95¢ $12,008 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 95¢ $190 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 95¢ $5 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 95¢ $4 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 95¢ $19 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 95¢ $19 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 95¢ $4,750 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 95¢ $19 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 95¢ $19 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 95¢ $19 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 95¢ $19 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 95¢ $29 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 95¢ $950 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 95¢ $19 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 95¢ $1,598 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 81¢ $87 19h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 81¢ $100 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,932.50 · official $10,932.50 (match) · 3395 history records