Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:51:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0C 0x0c75…3a8a sports 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 719d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$271 (+3%) realized +$267 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate85%62W / 11L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,072now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$207
7 days+$204
14 days+$204
30 days+$204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$190
other 29% +$84
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -15.9% -23.9% 80% 2% -6.9%
≤30d 56 -15.9% -23.9% 80% 2% -6.9%
≤90d 58 -13.6% -21.8% 81% 5% -6.8%
all 73 +7.5% -2.8% 85% 25% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 25% -6.1%
10% -12.1% 23% -15.1%
15% -20.6% 23% -23.3%
20% -28.4% 15% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.44 per $1 lost it wins $5.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

719d coverage
Net worth$1,072
Realized+$267
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses62 / 11
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)73 / 75
History coverage719d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals No 96¢ 97¢ $603 $607 +$4 (+1%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? No 94¢ 94¢ $161 $161 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set 1 Winner: Gorgodze vs Jeanjean Jun 24 $276 +$7 +3%
Set 2 Winner: Gorgodze vs Jeanjean Jun 24 $187 +$4 +2%
Set 1 Winner: Draper vs Jones Jun 24 $107 +$7 +6%
Yoane Wissa: 2+ assists Jun 24 $1,075 +$65 +6%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $56 +$2 +3%
Spread: Colombia (-4.5) Jun 24 $55 +$1 +2%
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) Jun 24 $51 +$1 +3%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $56 +$1 +1%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $112 +$2 +2%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $920 +$49 +5%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $1,119 +$21 +2%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 23 $56 +$1 +1%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) Jun 23 $54 +$3 +5%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 23 $56 $0 +0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5 Jun 23 $111 +$4 +4%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? Jun 23 $3 $0 +4%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $435 +$21 +5%
Mackenzie McDonald vs. Felipe Meligeni Alves: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $56 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $55 +$2 +3%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $55 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $138 +$6 +4%
McDonald vs. Alves: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 22 $169 +$2 +1%
McDonald vs. Alves: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 22 $279 +$6 +2%
Gaubas vs. Mmoh: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 22 $169 +$1 +1%
Set 2 Winner: Monday vs Schoolkate Jun 22 $46 +$5 +12%
Set 2 Winner: Hsu vs Sakellaridis Jun 22 $72 +$3 +5%
Set 2 Winner: Kraus vs Kalinskaya Jun 22 $118 +$7 +6%
Solana Sierra vs. Qinwen Zheng: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $223 +$2 +1%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $25 $0 +1%
Snigur vs. Kalinina: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 22 $25 $0 +1%
Mallorca Championships: Completed Match: Corentin Moutet vs Marton Fuc Jun 22 $64 $0 +1%
Set 2 Winner: Bu vs Dellien Jun 22 $326 +$24 +7%
Set 1 Winner: Napolitano vs Harris Jun 22 $24 +$1 +6%
Set 1 Winner: Gomez vs Tabur Jun 22 $24 +$1 +6%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? Jun 22 $99 $0 +0%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $72 +$3 +4%
Ben Waine: 4+ shots Jun 22 $72 +$3 +4%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 22 $24 +$1 +4%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $25 +$1 +4%
Yuito Suzuki: 3+ goals Jun 21 $24 +$1 +5%
Alan Minda: 3+ goals Jun 21 $25 $0 +0%
Anthony Valencia: 3+ goals Jun 21 $24 +$1 +5%
Brian Brobbey: 3+ goals Jun 20 $25 $0 +0%
Justin Kluivert: 2+ assists Jun 20 $24 +$1 +6%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $24 +$1 +3%
Biden drops out by July 12? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Heat vs. Pacers Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Pelicans vs. Nets Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Pistons vs. Trail Blazers Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals BUY No 96¢ $55 1h
Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals BUY No 96¢ $55 1h
Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals BUY No 96¢ $55 1h
Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals BUY No 96¢ $55 1h
Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals BUY No 96¢ $55 1h
Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals BUY No 96¢ $55 1h
Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals BUY No 96¢ $55 1h
Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals BUY No 96¢ $55 1h
Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals BUY No 96¢ $55 1h
Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals BUY No 96¢ $55 1h
Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals BUY No 96¢ $55 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? BUY No 94¢ $54 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? BUY No 94¢ $54 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? BUY No 94¢ $54 1h
Set 2 Winner: Gorgodze vs Jeanjean BUY Jeanjean 99¢ $19 1h
Set 2 Winner: Gorgodze vs Jeanjean BUY Jeanjean 98¢ $56 1h
Set 2 Winner: Gorgodze vs Jeanjean BUY Jeanjean 98¢ $56 1h
Set 2 Winner: Gorgodze vs Jeanjean BUY Jeanjean 98¢ $56 1h
Set 1 Winner: Draper vs Jones BUY Draper 94¢ $54 2h
Set 1 Winner: Draper vs Jones BUY Draper 94¢ $54 2h
Set 1 Winner: Gorgodze vs Jeanjean BUY Jeanjean 99¢ $54 2h
Set 1 Winner: Gorgodze vs Jeanjean BUY Jeanjean 98¢ $56 2h
Set 1 Winner: Gorgodze vs Jeanjean BUY Jeanjean 98¢ $56 2h
Set 1 Winner: Gorgodze vs Jeanjean BUY Jeanjean 96¢ $55 2h
Set 1 Winner: Gorgodze vs Jeanjean BUY Jeanjean 96¢ $55 2h
Yoane Wissa: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $54 18h
Yoane Wissa: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $54 18h
Yoane Wissa: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $54 18h
Yoane Wissa: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $54 18h
Yoane Wissa: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $54 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,071.91 · official $1,071.91 (match) · 276 history records