Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:36:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
0C 0x0c77…1bfe other 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$86 (+16%) realized +$83 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +100% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +74% what you keep after slip
Net edge+74%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%7W / 19L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$234
7 days+$164
14 days+$148
30 days+$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$14
crypto 44% +$55
sports 9% +$86
weather 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+81.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +42.6% +29.0% 24% 24% +43.7%
≤30d 26 +100.4% +81.3% 27% 27% +28.6%
≤90d 26 +100.4% +81.3% 27% 27% +28.6%
all 26 +100.4% +81.3% 27% 27% +28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +81.3% 27% +28.6%
10% +64.0% 23% +16.3%
15% +48.1% 23% +5.0%
20% +33.6% 23% -5.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +100% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +70% → late +130% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$7 · ×5.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$83
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses7 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)26 / 32
History coverage8d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Yes 19¢ 18¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 15¢ 24¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+60%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$10 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $26 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$20 +384%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals Jun 21 $10 +$68 +663%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 +$99 +874%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $41 +$58 +141%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $37 +$26 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$3 -57%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -13%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals Jun 20 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Jake Paul attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 −$31 -78%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 +$3 +16%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $12 +$10 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $30 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $12 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $24 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down $5 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $26 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 2h
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $78 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 48¢ $76 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 SELL 94¢ $98 10h
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $10 13h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 13h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 21h
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals SELL Yes $5 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $37 22h
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 20? BUY Yes $5 22h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $3 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.89 · official $186.23 · 49 history records