Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:20:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0C 0x0c78…57e2 sports 19 markets active 19h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$922 (-16%) realized −$922 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$296per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$824
7 days+$508
14 days+$386
30 days+$386
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$1,429
sports 43% +$1,056
crypto 5% −$300
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +67.3% +51.4% 50% 50% +33.8%
≤30d 11 +12.5% +1.8% 36% 36% +17.3%
≤90d 11 +12.5% +1.8% 36% 36% +17.3%
all 18 -6.4% -15.3% 33% 33% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 33% -20.7%
10% -23.4% 33% -28.2%
15% -30.8% 33% -35.2%
20% -37.6% 33% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$264 vs −$188 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$922
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage238d
Avg bet$296
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Algeria wi Jun 23 $51 +$262 +511%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 22 $509 +$563 +110%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $101 +$84 +83%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$68 +134%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 30 $2,863 −$1,429 -50%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 10 $1,000 +$562 +56%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $127 −$127 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 30 $76 +$44 +59%
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? Oct 29 $23 −$4 -17%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on October 28? Oct 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Croatia wi BUY 27¢ $102 18h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Algeria wi SELL 99¢ $313 19h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Algeria wi BUY 16¢ $51 32h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $101 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 84¢ $1,072 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 39¢ $509 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $203 6d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $51 7d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 7d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $30 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 54¢ $101 8d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? SELL No $136 175d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY No 48¢ $1,298 176d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? SELL Yes 53¢ $1,298 176d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,565 205d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 64¢ $500 226d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 64¢ $500 226d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) BUY Anyones Legend 53¢ $127 235d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY G2 Esports 15¢ $10 236d
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 237d
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 237d
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 63¢ $76 237d
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? BUY Yes 23¢ $23 237d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on October 28? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 238d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records