Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:35:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0C 0x0c79…6746 other 9 markets active 15h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$288 (+29%) realized +$283 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$229
sports 30% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +33.8% +21.1% 75% 75% +21.1%
≤30d 8 +33.8% +21.1% 75% 75% +21.1%
≤90d 8 +33.8% +21.1% 75% 75% +21.1%
all 8 +33.8% +21.1% 75% 75% +21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.1% 75% +21.1%
10% +9.5% 75% +9.5%
15% -1.1% 75% -1.0%
20% -10.8% 25% -10.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$18 · ×2.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.76 per $1 lost it wins $8.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$205
Realized+$283
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $101 +$42 +41%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $101 −$32 -32%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$3 -3%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 21 $101 +$38 +38%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$53 +52%
Japan to win the second half? Jun 21 $101 +$91 +89%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $101 +$46 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $143 14h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 51¢ $69 14h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 68¢ $98 14h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 15h
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $139 15h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $141 15h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $101 16h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $101 16h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $101 16h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $154 26h
Japan to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $192 26h
Japan to win the second half? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 38h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 38h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.76 · official $204.76 (match) · 17 history records