Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:29:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c7b…6e9d sports 197 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,862 (-16%) realized −$8,764 · open −$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%85W / 110L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$280per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$832est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$143
7 days−$990
14 days−$1,995
30 days−$2,300
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$6,688
crypto 17% −$3,290
other 1% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -36.3% -42.4% 40% 35% -45.1%
≤30d 36 -34.4% -40.6% 42% 39% -33.4%
≤90d 195 -20.1% -27.7% 44% 38% -25.7%
all 195 -20.1% -27.7% 44% 38% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.7% 38% -25.7%
10% -34.6% 33% -32.8%
15% -41.0% 27% -39.3%
20% -46.7% 23% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -15% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$170 vs −$221 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8,764
Unrealized−$98
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses85 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$832
Open positions2
Markets (closed)195 / 197
History coverage74d
Avg bet$280
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner GLYPH 44¢ 0¢ $78 $0 −$78 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner VP.Prodigy 12¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +7%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $68 −$68 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $202 −$187 -92%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $100 −$98 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $163 +$104 +64%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $179 −$2 -1%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $118 +$40 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $96 +$28 +29%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $209 +$219 +104%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $114 +$58 +51%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $75 +$40 +53%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 19 $71 −$71 -100%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $56 +$14 +26%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $111 −$111 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $376 −$376 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $374 −$374 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $228 −$228 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $639 −$497 -78%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $997 −$997 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $504 +$202 +40%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $312 +$227 +73%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $48 −$48 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $296 −$296 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $391 +$132 +34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $801 +$371 +46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $564 +$238 +42%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $75 −$75 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $377 +$70 +19%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $152 +$98 +64%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 25 $595 −$306 -51%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 20 $188 −$188 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 20 $150 +$156 +104%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 20 $221 +$105 +48%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner May 20 $150 +$71 +48%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Apr 30 $150 −$150 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Apr 30 $796 −$247 -31%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $175 −$175 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $200 +$197 +99%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $45 −$45 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 25 $44 −$44 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $221 −$221 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Apr 24 $201 −$201 -100%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stag Apr 23 $224 −$224 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner Apr 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner BUY GLYPH 44¢ $79 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 12¢ $21 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 10¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 19h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 0¢ $1 19h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 3¢ $14 19h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 4¢ $14 19h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $187 20h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 47¢ $100 21h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 40¢ $100 24h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 30¢ $68 26h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner SELL REKONIX 100¢ $267 26h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY REKONIX 60¢ $163 27h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $157 30h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 30h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 52¢ $17 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 77¢ $96 36h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 29¢ $82 36h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 71¢ $177 36h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $97 37h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $92 38h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $292 38h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $102 39h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 52¢ $34 39h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 76¢ $136 39h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $73 40h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 99¢ $172 40h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 65¢ $114 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.17 · official $0.17 (match) · 608 history records