Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:23:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c7d…414f world 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate43%36W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$4
politics 21% −$6
other 15% $0
sports 7% −$1
economics 4% $0
finance 0% +$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.8% -7.9% 55% 9% -8.5%
≤30d 33 -2.0% -11.3% 39% 9% -9.1%
≤90d 69 -1.2% -10.6% 41% 4% -9.4%
all 83 -4.0% -13.2% 43% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 7% -9.6%
10% -21.5% 4% -18.2%
15% -29.1% 1% -26.1%
20% -36.0% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses36 / 47
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage524d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 37¢ 33¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $26 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $12 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $42 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $89 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $96 +$3 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $45 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $45 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $41 +$2 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $41 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $11 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $202 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 08 $12 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $100 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 31 $37 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $60 −$5 -8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $38 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $95 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $42 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $7 $0 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $22 −$1 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $23 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $9 +$2 +21%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $91 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $41 +$5 +13%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $36 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $93 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $115 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $72 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $74 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $37 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $37 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $59 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $3 $0 +1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $71 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 11 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $26 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $26 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 11h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $2 26h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $10 26h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $12 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $42 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 61¢ $42 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $46 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $47 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $21 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 73¢ $19 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $45 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $45 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $45 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $45 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $40 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $39 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $43 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $41 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $4 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 58¢ $3 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 58¢ $35 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 58¢ $38 8d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.00 (match) · 310 history records