Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:55:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c7d…63de weather 527 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$85 (+1%) realized +$84 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate79%405W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day23.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$238now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$15
14 days−$6
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$76
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 +0.2% -9.3% 95% 9% -10.1%
≤30d 336 +1.5% -8.2% 93% 7% -9.3%
≤90d 512 +6.7% -3.5% 79% 15% -8.6%
all 512 +6.7% -3.5% 79% 15% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.5% 15% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -12.7% 9% -17.4%
15% -21.2% 7% -25.4%
20% -28.9% 5% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$238
Realized+$84
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses405 / 107
Open positions15
Markets (closed)512 / 527
History coverage78d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 512 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 +$6 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $37 −$3 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 20m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 20m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 21m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 27m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 56m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $238.25 · official $237.66 (match) · 2279 history records