Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:48:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0C 0x0c7d…6897 sports 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$429 (-5%) realized −$399 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%21W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$570now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$126
7 days−$587
14 days−$598
30 days−$598
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$1,105
other 40% −$1,310
crypto 3% −$223
world 2% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -17.0% -24.9% 34% 33% -16.1%
≤30d 63 -19.7% -27.3% 33% 32% -16.2%
≤90d 63 -19.7% -27.3% 33% 32% -16.2%
all 63 -19.7% -27.3% 33% 32% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 32% -16.2%
10% -34.3% 30% -24.3%
15% -40.6% 30% -31.6%
20% -46.5% 27% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$171 vs −$100 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$570
Realized−$399
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses21 / 42
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions3
Markets (closed)63 / 66
History coverage8d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 34¢ $300 $252 −$48 (-16%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 90¢ $200 $235 +$35 (+18%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Over 32¢ 26¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $308 +$374 +121%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $308 −$300 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $104 −$101 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $308 +$415 +135%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $204 +$87 +43%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $511 −$501 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $307 −$224 -73%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $104 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $104 −$101 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $103 −$49 -47%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $21 +$79 +384%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $205 +$249 +121%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $101 +$15 +15%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $206 +$282 +137%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $205 −$200 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $103 +$263 +255%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $308 +$298 +97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $309 −$300 -97%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $205 −$193 -94%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $207 +$352 +170%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $206 −$158 -77%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $103 +$91 +88%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $205 +$195 +95%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $104 +$249 +239%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $52 −$49 -94%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $52 −$51 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $411 −$285 -69%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $11 −$11 -96%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $51 +$36 +70%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $101 +$9 +8%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $205 +$155 +76%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $103 −$101 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $206 −$201 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $124 +$217 +176%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $509 −$46 -9%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 +$113 +273%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 +$57 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $203 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $308 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $103 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $103 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $103 17h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 27¢ $103 18h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 18h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $205 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $205 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $724 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $308 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $291 20h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 64¢ $510 20h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 15¢ $83 20h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 17¢ $104 21h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 20¢ $103 21h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 18¢ $54 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $204 23h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $307 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $103 23h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 86¢ $101 42h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $205 44h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $21 44h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $205 44h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $21 44h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 100¢ $366 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $206 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $204 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $570.24 · official $597.45 · 114 history records