Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:48:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c7f…afca crypto 291 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d only
✗ bot/MM pace (439 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$755 (+1%) realized +$755 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%285W / 5L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day439.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$357
7 days−$51
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$29
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (439 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 273 +0.4% -9.2% 98% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 290 +0.5% -9.1% 98% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 290 +0.5% -9.1% 98% 0% -9.5%
all 290 +0.5% -9.1% 98% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover439.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 0% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$247 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized+$755
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses285 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)290 / 291
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$209
Trades / day439.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 290 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12PM ET Down 99¢ 98¢ $149 $149 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11AM ET Jun 28 $147 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9AM ET Jun 28 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8AM ET Jun 28 $75 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $124 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7AM ET Jun 28 $99 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $48 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $148 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6AM ET Jun 28 $1,042 +$22 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $146 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5AM ET Jun 28 $442 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 28 $298 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET Jun 28 $191 +$3 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET Jun 28 $280 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $195 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $235 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $235 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $72 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $543 +$16 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 28 $72 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $438 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12AM ET Jun 28 $48 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 28 $381 +$12 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 28 $35 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10PM ET Jun 28 $610 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 28 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 28 $219 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9PM ET Jun 28 $116 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 28 $47 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7PM ET Jun 28 $173 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 28 $357 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 27 $140 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 27 $70 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5PM ET Jun 27 $792 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $400 +$12 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET Jun 27 $69 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4PM ET Jun 27 $111 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $421 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3PM ET Jun 27 $67 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $677 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1PM ET Jun 27 $497 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 27? Jun 27 $172 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 27? Jun 27 $150 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $53 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $154 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 27? Jun 27 $77 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11AM ET Jun 27 $190 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $24 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $24 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $24 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $24 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 54m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $25 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $24 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $24 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $24 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $24 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.77 · official $148.77 (match) · 3500 history records