Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:30:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c7f…a160 sports 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14,883 (-54%) realized −$14,883 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%8W / 19L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,023per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$364est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$89
7 days+$608
14 days−$8,507
30 days−$14,787
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$14,585
crypto 1% −$202
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-43.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -9.0% -17.6% 40% 40% +37.3%
≤30d 27 -37.7% -43.6% 30% 30% -58.4%
≤90d 27 -37.7% -43.6% 30% 30% -58.4%
all 27 -37.7% -43.6% 30% 30% -58.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.6% 30% -58.4%
10% -49.0% 30% -62.4%
15% -53.9% 26% -66.0%
20% -58.5% 26% -69.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$1,197) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$587 vs −$1,025 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14,883
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses8 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$364
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage19d
Avg bet$1,023
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Plovdiv: Geoffrey Blancaneaux vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 23 $224 +$291 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $104 −$99 -95%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $111 −$75 -68%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $639 +$595 +93%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $2,989 −$2,943 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $2,222 −$2,190 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $264 −$52 -20%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 12 $819 −$806 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 12 $540 −$531 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 12 $1,216 −$1,197 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $600 −$591 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $560 −$550 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $966 −$954 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $771 +$733 +95%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 10 $761 −$34 -4%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $1,196 +$909 +76%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 08 $726 −$714 -98%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 07 $569 −$565 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 07 $881 −$875 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $2,054 +$595 +29%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $5,029 −$4,980 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $334 +$255 +76%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $371 +$390 +105%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 04 $754 −$745 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 04 $1,497 −$1,475 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $1,316 +$925 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Plovdiv: Geoffrey Blancaneaux vs Tomasz Berkieta SELL Tomasz Berkieta 96¢ $515 1h
Plovdiv: Geoffrey Blancaneaux vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Tomasz Berkieta 41¢ $224 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $104 3h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 18¢ $36 6d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 51¢ $51 6d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 56¢ $60 6d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 100¢ $1,234 6d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $254 6d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $386 6d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $2,989 8d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $119 8d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 51¢ $2,103 8d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 43¢ $211 10d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 46¢ $819 10d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 43¢ $56 10d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 43¢ $484 10d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 47¢ $1,216 10d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $264 11d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $600 11d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 41¢ $560 11d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 58¢ $966 12d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 99¢ $1,504 13d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Tampa Bay Rays 54¢ $727 13d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Tampa Bay Rays 55¢ $761 13d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 50¢ $771 13d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres SELL San Diego Padres 100¢ $2,105 14d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 43¢ $726 14d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 56¢ $1,196 14d
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 78¢ $569 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records