Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:38:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

0C 0x0c80…e8fc crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$35 (-2%) realized −$10 · open −$25

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip

Net edge-45%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate43%9W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$67per market

Trades / day41.0pace

Kalshi-fit96%portable

Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)-35.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	-28.9%	-35.7%	43%	43%	-32.0%
≤30d	21	-28.9%	-35.7%	43%	43%	-32.0%
≤90d	21	-28.9%	-35.7%	43%	43%	-32.0%
all	21	-28.9%	-35.7%	43%	43%	-32.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover41.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-35.7%	43%	-32.0%
10% ← realistic here	-41.9%	43%	-38.5%
15%	-47.5%	33%	-44.4%
20%	-52.6%	10%	-49.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -29% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -13% → late -43% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$28 vs −$52 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.41 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$10

Realized−$10

Unrealized−$25

Win rate (resolved)43%

Wins / losses9 / 12

Open positions2

Markets (closed)21 / 24

History coverage1d

Avg bet$67

Trades / day41.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	51¢	48¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	10¢	0¢	$25	$1	−$24 (-95%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Jun 26	$52	−$50	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Jun 26	$56	+$20	+36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Jun 26	$103	−$100	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Jun 26	$101	+$24	+23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Jun 26	$102	+$47	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Jun 26	$106	−$100	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Jun 26	$308	−$72	-24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Jun 26	$102	+$43	+42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Jun 26	$51	−$51	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Jun 26	$103	−$100	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Jun 26	$53	−$53	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Jun 26	$51	+$15	+30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Jun 26	$26	+$23	+90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Jun 26	$51	+$25	+49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Jun 26	$51	−$5	-11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Jun 26	$51	+$23	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Jun 26	$51	+$33	+64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Jun 26	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Jun 26	$10	−$10	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Jun 26	$5	−$5	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Jun 26	$52	−$52	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$5	3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$5	3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	BUY Down	10¢	$27	7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$26	12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$26	12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	BUY Down	60¢	$5	16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	BUY Down	75¢	$25	17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	BUY Down	72¢	$25	17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	BUY Up	59¢	$103	32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	BUY Up	80¢	$101	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Up	67¢	$102	42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	BUY Up	16¢	$106	49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$103	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	BUY Up	74¢	$102	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	SELL Down	28¢	$41	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$102	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	BUY Up	69¢	$102	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	BUY Up	67¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	BUY Down	61¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	BUY Down	13¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	BUY Down	36¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	BUY Down	78¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	BUY Down	73¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	SELL Down	10¢	$3	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	BUY Up	59¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	BUY Down	69¢	$26	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.47 · official $59.01 · 57 history records