Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:53:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c83…29cf other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%18W / 18L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% $0
other 42% +$1
politics 10% $0
economics 2% +$1
crypto 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -3.8% -12.9% 25% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 11 -2.3% -11.6% 27% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 11 -2.3% -11.6% 27% 0% -9.6%
all 36 -0.9% -10.4% 50% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses18 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage467d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $9 $0 -3%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $11 −$1 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $90 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $47 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $43 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 04 $11 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $3 $0 -12%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Dec 13 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 01 $12 $0 +1%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 09 $15 $0 +2%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can May 06 $11 $0 +4%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $1 $0 -24%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Nicolae Ciucă advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof Apr 26 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win by 100–124 seats? Apr 25 $11 $0 -0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $13 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 25 $21 $0 +1%
Will Newcastle finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Apr 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 24 $3 $0 -3%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 24 $3 $0 -2%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by Friday? Apr 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day Apr 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $12 +$1 +7%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Mar 19 $12 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 17 $13 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $46 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $46 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $18 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $8 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 36h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $47 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $47 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $15 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $28 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $43 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $8 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $35 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $43 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $31 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $16 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $47 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 32¢ $39 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $39 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 54¢ $4 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 54¢ $30 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 54¢ $9 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $43 14d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $11 15d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $11 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $47 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 111 history records