Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:02:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0C 0x0c83…3fd4 sports 216 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$39 (+3%) realized +$41 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%93W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day31.4pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$273now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days+$70
14 days+$43
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$39
other 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 160 +7.9% -2.4% 58% 58% -2.4%
≤30d 166 +4.0% -5.9% 56% 55% -5.3%
≤90d 166 +4.0% -5.9% 56% 55% -5.3%
all 166 +4.0% -5.9% 56% 55% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 55% -5.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 55% -14.3%
15% -23.1% 49% -22.6%
20% -30.7% 35% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$273
Realized+$41
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses93 / 73
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions50
Markets (closed)166 / 216
History coverage8d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 50 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 47¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$6 (+113%)
ITF Ystad: Matylda Burylo vs Emina Honic Matylda Burylo 69¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+44%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Petra Marcinko 72¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+39%)
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Coco Gauff 74¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 44¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+10%)
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Mattia Bellucci 42¢ 46¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+11%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 44¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 46¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Altmaier 46¢ 49¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Yes 31¢ 32¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 45¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Qinwen Zheng 65¢ 66¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Over 13¢ 14¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Hubert Hurkacz 76¢ 78¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 69¢ 70¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
ITF Tauste: Chelsea Fontenel vs Meritxell Teixido Garcia Chelsea Fontenel 75¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 43¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 52¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 35¢ 35¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Hubert Hurkacz vs. Daniel Altmaier: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 74¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Terence Atmane vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 66¢ 65¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Katie Volynets vs. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 60¢ 59¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jessica Pegula vs. Katerina Siniakova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$3 +65%
Set 2 Winner: Minaur vs Shapovalov Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Alex de Minaur vs. Denis Shapovalov: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$3 +55%
Frances Tiafoe vs. Sho Shimabukuro: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Set 1 Winner: Bergs vs Fritz Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $5 +$2 +32%
Set 2 Winner: Nakashima vs Buse Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Brandon Nakashima vs. Ignacio Buse: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$3 +57%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $5 +$2 +36%
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery Jun 17 $5 −$1 -26%
Elise Mertens vs. Nikola Bartunkova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$3 +56%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$3 -29%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Set 2 Winner: Starodubtseva vs Navarro Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 +$5 +104%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 +$2 +36%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$3 +65%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +105%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 +$2 +36%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +81%
Zizou Bergs vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$2 -16%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 +$2 +50%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $5 +$4 +76%
Set 1 Winner: Majchrzak vs Lehecka Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Rinky Hijikata vs. Alejandro Tabilo: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$3 +70%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Tomas Etcheverry vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Arthur Rinderknech vs. Hamad Medjedovic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$4 +72%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $5 +$4 +73%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Etcheverry vs Medvedev Jun 16 $5 +$2 +32%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $5 +$4 +79%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $5 +$7 +146%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $5 +$2 +50%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $5 +$9 +180%
Set 1 Winner: Monnet vs Trevisan Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $5 +$7 +134%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $5 +$3 +70%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $5 +$4 +73%
Fiona Ferro vs. Kajsa Rinaldo Persson: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $5 +$5 +109%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Viktorija Golubic vs. Sofia Kenin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $5 +$12 +238%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$1 -11%
Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs Hanfmann Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $5 22m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $5 24m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 35¢ $5 45m
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) BUY Altmaier 46¢ $5 51m
ITF Tauste: Chelsea Fontenel vs Meritxell Teixido Garcia BUY Chelsea Fontenel 75¢ $5 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $5 1h
Terence Atmane vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 66¢ $5 2h
Paula Badosa vs. Coco Gauff: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 65¢ $5 2h
ITF Ystad: Tian Jialin vs Anika Jaskova BUY Tian Jialin 71¢ $5 7h
Set 2 Winner: Minaur vs Shapovalov BUY Minaur 68¢ $5 7h
Alex de Minaur vs. Denis Shapovalov: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 64¢ $5 7h
Set 2 Winner: Starodubtseva vs Navarro BUY Navarro 63¢ $5 9h
ITF Ystad: Matylda Burylo vs Emina Honic BUY Matylda Burylo 69¢ $5 9h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $5 9h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 74¢ $5 10h
Katie Volynets vs. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 60¢ $5 10h
Hubert Hurkacz vs. Daniel Altmaier: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 62¢ $5 11h
Set 1 Winner: Bergs vs Fritz BUY Fritz 69¢ $5 11h
ITF Ystad: Gergana Topalova vs Loes Ebeling Koning BUY Loes Ebeling Koning 60¢ $5 12h
Frances Tiafoe vs. Sho Shimabukuro: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 61¢ $5 12h
Set 2 Winner: Nakashima vs Buse BUY Nakashima 68¢ $5 15h
Jessica Pegula vs. Katerina Siniakova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 60¢ $5 15h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 42¢ $5 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 60¢ $5 16h
Learner Tien vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 58¢ $5 16h
Zizou Bergs vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 63¢ $5 16h
Elise Mertens vs. Nikola Bartunkova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 63¢ $5 16h
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 72¢ $5 16h
Brandon Nakashima vs. Ignacio Buse: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 63¢ $5 17h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 75¢ $5 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $273.01 · official $272.46 (match) · 348 history records