Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0C 0x0c85…7824 sports 37 markets active 13h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$30 (+13%) realized +$32 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%17W / 16L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$16
sports 36% +$17
crypto 21% −$9
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +9.4% -1.0% 52% 48% +1.4%
≤30d 33 +9.4% -1.0% 52% 48% +1.4%
≤90d 33 +9.4% -1.0% 52% 48% +1.4%
all 33 +9.4% -1.0% 52% 48% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.0% 48% +1.4%
10% ← realistic here -10.5% 45% -8.3%
15% -19.2% 39% -17.2%
20% -27.1% 33% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$32
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 37
History coverage3d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 50¢ 16¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +23%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $4 +$2 +50%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $6 +$5 +77%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 +$3 +33%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 +$3 +79%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$6 +189%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 $0 -3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$5 +103%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $6 +$2 +36%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$10 +197%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 +$7 +160%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -5%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $6 +$8 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $14 +$21 +148%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 13h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $4 13h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 13h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $11 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $6 14h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 81¢ $8 15h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $2 15h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $4 15h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $4 15h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $2 15h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 85¢ $11 16h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $8 18h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $9 19h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $4 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 21h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 46¢ $6 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 35h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 36h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 56¢ $5 37h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 40h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 40h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $10 42h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $8 42h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 42h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $6 43h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 43h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $7 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.03 · official $7.97 (match) · 76 history records