Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:48:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0C 0x0c86…1ac1 crypto 729 markets active 0h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$22 (+3%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%415W / 313L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$3
sports 8% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 443 -9.2% -17.8% 59% 54% -7.5%
≤30d 444 -9.4% -18.0% 59% 54% -8.1%
≤90d 486 -8.8% -17.5% 58% 53% -6.7%
all 728 -5.8% -14.8% 57% 52% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 52% -7.9%
10% -22.9% 46% -16.8%
15% -30.4% 30% -24.8%
20% -37.2% 14% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses415 / 313
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)728 / 729
History coverage103d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 728 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Down 69¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 166 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.70 · official $0.96 (match) · 1540 history records