Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:46:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c87…f576 crypto 645 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,030 (-5%) realized −$1,032 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%325W / 319L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$148
14 days−$416
30 days−$957
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$836
sports 19% −$443
other 4% −$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -51.3% -55.9% 36% 36% -52.4%
≤30d 203 -1.1% -10.5% 51% 49% -22.7%
≤90d 644 +5.1% -4.9% 50% 48% -16.3%
all 644 +5.1% -4.9% 50% 48% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 48% -16.3%
10% -14.0% 44% -24.3%
15% -22.3% 39% -31.6%
20% -29.9% 32% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$25 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$1,032
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses325 / 319
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions1
Markets (closed)644 / 645
History coverage74d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 644 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 32¢ 34¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 107 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $71 +$35 +50%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $20 +$3 +13%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$7 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $62 −$60 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $30 +$14 +46%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $20 +$28 +140%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $35 +$28 +79%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$23 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$16 +258%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$13 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$11 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $12 +$16 +128%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$4 -40%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$61 +596%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$27 +54%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 32¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $23 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 88¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 66¢ $71 3h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 6d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 7d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 7d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 7d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $20 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 7d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 7d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 7d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.33 · official $32.34 (match) · 1737 history records