Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:34:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0C 0x0c8a…23d0 crypto 942 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 165d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$818 (-7%) realized −$808 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate19%173W / 755L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$231
14 days−$298
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$224
crypto 22% −$367
sports 22% −$402
weather 22% +$8
world 5% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-41.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -42.9% -48.3% 36% 33% -27.2%
≤30d 128 -13.9% -22.1% 60% 38% -10.6%
≤90d 907 -52.9% -57.4% 17% 14% -22.1%
all 928 -35.0% -41.2% 19% 15% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.2% 15% -18.0%
10% -46.9% 14% -25.8%
15% -52.0% 12% -33.0%
20% -56.7% 9% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$6 · ×3.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$288
Realized−$808
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses173 / 755
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions14
Markets (closed)928 / 942
History coverage166d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 928 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 94¢ $53 $51 −$1 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $40 $34 −$6 (-16%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 62¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 9¢ 18¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+106%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-45%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 19¢ 7¢ $15 $5 −$10 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $20 +$15 +76%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 +$12 +57%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$10 +50%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 +$9 +46%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $71 −$70 -99%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $20 +$15 +76%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $302 +$93 +31%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21? Jun 22 $100 +$3 +3%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $30 +$9 +30%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 +$41 +82%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi Jun 20 $26 +$39 +152%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 +$6 +31%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 18 $88 +$4 +5%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 18 $108 +$5 +4%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $20 +$6 +29%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +34%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$11 +109%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$3 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $30 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $30 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 19h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 28¢ $10 19h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $20 19h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $20 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 46h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 63¢ $20 46h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Scotland 50¢ $10 46h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $40 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $20 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 62¢ $30 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $20 4d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 76¢ $302 4d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $10 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $39 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 76¢ $30 4d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 38¢ $5 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 5d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 65¢ $20 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 6d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 94¢ $33 6d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $51 6d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi SELL 68¢ $64 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $287.67 · official $287.67 (match) · 3500 history records