Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:43:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c90…1884 politics 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%10W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$4
sports 21% −$1
other 9% $0
crypto 7% +$1
culture 2% $0
economics 2% +$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 50 -5.3% -14.3% 20% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -22.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses10 / 40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage226d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $88 $88 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $91 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $183 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 22 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 4? Mar 07 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 11 $181 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 01 $89 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 30 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $90 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 27 $89 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 26 $1 $0 -33%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 26 $181 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $92 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 24 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 22 $90 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 16 $186 −$1 -0%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 16 $88 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 13 $1 $0 -20%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 11 $1 $0 -20%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 10 $2 −$1 -29%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 10 $92 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 08 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 05 $91 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 02 $94 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 30 $95 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Dec 26 $1 $0 -16%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 26 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 26 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 25 $95 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 23 $94 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 20 $1 $0 -33%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $93 $0 -0%
Will Joana Amaral Dias win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 18 $93 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $95 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 12 $92 +$1 +1%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 08 $93 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Hell" 4+ times during Cabinet Meeting on December 2? Dec 06 $93 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 03 $183 $0 +0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 25 $1 $0 -7%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 23 $93 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 21 $91 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $5 $0 -8%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 20 $92 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 18 $88 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 13 $93 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 09 $93 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $88 1h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $91 2d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $91 7d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $89 16d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $89 21d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $90 105d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 4? BUY No 99¢ $90 109d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $88 130d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $88 138d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 138d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $89 141d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $89 142d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 142d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 144d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 144d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $90 144d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $90 145d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 145d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 145d
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $89 145d
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $89 146d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 147d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 147d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 147d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $86 147d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $86 147d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 147d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 147d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 148d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 148d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.33 · official $88.33 (match) · 187 history records