Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:43:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c90…5bac other 187 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,054 (-2%) realized −$613 · open −$441
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate24%40W / 128L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$5,052now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,016
7 days−$409
14 days−$2,230
30 days−$3,489
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$741
crypto 8% −$373
tech 5% −$1,777
finance 0% −$9
sports 0% −$31
politics 0% −$1
world 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -41.5% -47.0% 18% 11% -19.4%
≤30d 105 -39.5% -45.3% 17% 11% -34.0%
≤90d 141 -31.1% -37.6% 21% 16% -21.7%
all 168 -25.7% -32.8% 24% 19% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.8% 19% -11.9%
10% -39.2% 17% -20.4%
15% -45.1% 15% -28.1%
20% -50.5% 15% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$215 vs −$76 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$5,052
Realized−$613
Unrealized−$441
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses40 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions19
Markets (closed)168 / 187
History coverage120d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 56¢ 48¢ $1,853 $1,589 −$264 (-14%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 43¢ 61¢ $863 $1,218 +$355 (+41%)
Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch? No 43¢ 40¢ $938 $869 −$69 (-7%)
Surf FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 20¢ 15¢ $1,020 $776 −$244 (-24%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? No 22¢ 94¢ $48 $206 +$157 (+325%)
Surf FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 50¢ 32¢ $221 $144 −$77 (-35%)
GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $90 $110 +$20 (+22%)
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 14¢ 32¢ $46 $102 +$57 (+125%)
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? No 17¢ 2¢ $80 $11 −$69 (-86%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 1? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $12 $7 −$6 (-46%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in June? Yes 12¢ 2¢ $49 $6 −$43 (-88%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of June? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $43 $4 −$39 (-91%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $480 end of June? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $24 $4 −$20 (-85%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $460 end of June? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $32 $2 −$29 (-93%)
Decibel FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 20¢ 54¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+167%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $450 end of June? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $58 $1 −$56 (-98%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $490 end of June? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $24 $1 −$23 (-95%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-99%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 26? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 26 $54 −$48 -89%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 26? Jun 26 $42 +$242 +575%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 1? Jun 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on July 1? Jun 25 $46 −$1 -2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on July 1? Jun 25 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 end of June? Jun 25 $108 −$97 -90%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 4? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 15 above $220? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 15 above $205? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 21? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 11? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -87%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 3? Jun 25 $35 −$32 -90%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 21? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 17? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 24? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 11? Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 21? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 9? Jun 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 9? Jun 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 3? Jun 25 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 3? Jun 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 4? Jun 25 $18 −$17 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 3? Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 4? Jun 25 $78 −$76 -97%
Nexus FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 25 $55 −$55 -100%
Arcium FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 25 $160 −$160 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jun 25 $949 +$51 +5%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Jun 25 $837 −$537 -64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 9? Jun 25 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $470 end of June? Jun 25 $42 −$41 -98%
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? Jun 25 $8 +$8 +97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? Jun 23 $18 −$16 -91%
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 22 $411 +$7 +2%
Arcium FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 22 $42 −$1 -1%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $495 in June? Jun 20 $0 $0 -96%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June? Jun 20 $3 −$1 -42%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 21? Jun 20 $10 +$19 +185%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 20 $5 −$3 -68%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 20 $8 +$22 +299%
Betmoar FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jun 20 $479 +$581 +121%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Jun 18 $106 −$56 -53%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 18 $20 −$5 -26%
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 18 $662 +$366 +55%
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 17 $198 −$159 -80%
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 17 $1,602 −$545 -34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 17 $8 −$4 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 44m
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $480 end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 45m
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 45m
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 2¢ $6 57m
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $480 end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $480 end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 26? SELL No 95¢ $284 1h
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? SELL No 7¢ $30 2h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $480 end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 20h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 1? SELL No 14¢ $42 23h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on July 1? SELL No 6¢ $45 23h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on July 1? SELL No 22¢ $31 23h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 24h
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY No 15¢ $30 24h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 24h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $450 end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 24h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 24h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $460 end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 24h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $470 end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 24h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $490 end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 24h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $480 end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 24h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $480 end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 24h
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY No 18¢ $137 25h
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? SELL Yes 33¢ $16 25h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on July 1? BUY No 20¢ $30 41h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on July 1? BUY No 6¢ $46 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,051.56 · official $5,051.56 (match) · 1167 history records