Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:57:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0C 0x0c93…a00b other 398 markets active 1h ago coverage 1044d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$468 (-0%) realized −$830 · open +$362
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate88%341W / 45L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$798per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$3,543now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$130
7 days+$1,115
14 days+$1,242
30 days+$2,268
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$286
sports 27% −$2,109
politics 9% +$3,352
world 1% −$1,950
tech 0% +$3
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +8.8% -1.5% 78% 30% -4.1%
≤30d 44 +7.1% -3.1% 68% 36% -4.5%
≤90d 59 +9.8% -0.7% 73% 32% +0.6%
all 386 +3.6% -6.2% 88% 15% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 15% -9.7%
10% -15.2% 11% -18.4%
15% -23.4% 9% -26.3%
20% -30.9% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$839) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$487 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1044d coverage
Net worth$3,543
Realized−$830
Unrealized+$362
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses341 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions12
Markets (closed)386 / 398
History coverage1044d
Avg bet$798
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 386 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? No 78¢ 97¢ $1,096 $1,365 +$269 (+25%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? No 90¢ 95¢ $1,053 $1,111 +$58 (+6%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 74¢ $324 $410 +$86 (+26%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? No 94¢ 94¢ $235 $234 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $242 $203 −$38 (-16%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 35¢ 30¢ $122 $103 −$19 (-16%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 42¢ $58 $83 +$25 (+43%)
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 29¢ 41¢ $14 $20 +$6 (+42%)
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? No 79¢ 49¢ $21 $13 −$8 (-38%)
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 29¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-92%)
Will Jeff Yan appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31? No 51¢ 71¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+39%)
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$13 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,133 −$33 -3%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $242 +$8 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $455 +$95 +21%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $940 +$60 +6%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $830 −$830 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5,915 +$585 +10%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,063 +$606 +57%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $4,960 +$40 +1%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $272 +$128 +47%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $202 +$28 +14%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $535 +$78 +14%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 $0 +3%
Will Team Falcons win an S tier event in 2026? Jun 21 $156 −$46 -29%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $144 +$6 +4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $190 −$188 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $240 +$760 +317%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $880 +$120 +14%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $590 +$410 +70%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $2,956 +$44 +2%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6,734 +$507 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,846 +$994 +54%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $800 +$200 +25%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $161 +$19 +12%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $520 −$520 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $780 −$10 -1%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $770 −$770 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,821 −$2,821 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $510 +$490 +96%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $800 +$200 +25%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $68 −$68 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,480 +$1,620 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $144 +$391 +270%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $265 −$265 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $536 +$914 +170%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $34 −$13 -37%
Will Team Falcons win CS Asia Championships 2026? May 26 $91 +$102 +112%
Will MOUZ win CS Asia Championships 2026? May 26 $182 +$14 +8%
Will Legacy win CS Asia Championships 2026? May 26 $1,376 +$1 +0%
Will ThreadGuy appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31? May 18 $190 +$17 +9%
Will any of the stolen KitKats be recovered by April 30? Apr 30 $1 $0 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 18? Apr 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $44 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $14 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $122 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 94¢ $236 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $174 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $150 2h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $209 26h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $32 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 56¢ $441 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 56¢ $2 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 56¢ $63 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 56¢ $1 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 56¢ $104 26h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $455 29h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $940 30h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $521 47h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 83¢ $830 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 91¢ $2,689 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 91¢ $1,700 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 91¢ $1,526 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 99¢ $4,960 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,063 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $272 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 88¢ $202 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 87¢ $263 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 87¢ $272 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 15¢ $27 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,542.89 · official $3,537.15 (match) · 1705 history records