Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:09:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0C
0x0c95…7ca6
other · 20 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$187 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$171 · open −$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$382
Realized−$171
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)13 / 20
History coverage6d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%
Chart Positions 7 History 13 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$171
14 days−$171
30 days−$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Yes 60¢ 70¢ $120 $140 +$20 (+17%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $70 $67 −$3 (-5%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Yes 77¢ 94¢ $54 $66 +$12 (+22%)
Will England be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 30¢ 20¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-33%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 30¢ 15¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Yes $25 $22 −$3 (-11%)
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday? Yes $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Yes $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will JT Poston win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday? No 84¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Will Ryan Gerard win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday? Yes 21¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 26¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Knicks $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $51 −$40 -77%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Jun 07 $72 −$42 -58%
Will JT Poston win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workd Jun 07 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 07 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 07 $101 +$25 +25%
Will Ryan Gerard win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wor Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $101 +$56 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 06 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 06 $103 +$59 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$13 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 06 $301 +$11 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 46% −$25
other 37% −$149
tech 16% −$8
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 77¢ $54 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes $12 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 60¢ $122 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 3h
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes $25 6h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks $5 3d
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by SELL Yes 16¢ $28 4d
Will JT Poston win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workd BUY No 84¢ $75 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 4d
Will Ryan Gerard win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wor BUY Yes 21¢ $31 4d
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by BUY Yes $21 5d
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P BUY Yes $10 5d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? SELL Yes 94¢ $157 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 6d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $23 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 6d
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by BUY Yes $51 6d
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 6d
Will England be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $72 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-43.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -37.0% -43.0% 38% 31% -25.3%
≤30d 13 -37.0% -43.0% 38% 31% -25.3%
≤90d 13 -37.0% -43.0% 38% 31% -25.3%
all 13 -37.0% -43.0% 38% 31% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.0% 31% -25.3%
10% -48.4% 31% -32.4%
15% -53.4% 23% -38.9%
20% -58.0% 23% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $381.90 · official $382.04 (match) · 42 history records