Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:03:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c97…a855 politics 327 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$513 (-0%) realized −$352 · open −$161
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate23%73W / 244L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,615per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$6,265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$70
14 days−$103
30 days−$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$524
other 24% −$140
sports 15% −$66
economics 3% −$41
crypto 3% −$49
culture 2% +$30
world 0% +$13
tech 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +0.2% -9.4% 12% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 +0.7% -8.9% 8% 4% -9.6%
≤90d 193 +0.2% -9.3% 18% 4% -9.6%
all 317 -2.7% -12.0% 23% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 6% -9.6%
10% -20.4% 4% -18.3%
15% -28.1% 3% -26.2%
20% -35.1% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,101) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$6,265
Realized−$352
Unrealized−$161
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses73 / 244
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions10
Markets (closed)317 / 327
History coverage235d
Avg bet$1,615
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 317 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 50¢ 57¢ $1,100 $1,254 +$154 (+14%)
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,200 $1,199 −$1 (-0%)
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,110 $1,109 −$1 (-0%)
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,100 $1,099 −$1 (-0%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 50¢ 43¢ $1,100 $946 −$154 (-14%)
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $600 $600 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 90¢ 88¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $22 $17 −$5 (-24%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 72¢ 89¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 95¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $6,399 −$8 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $3,461 −$5 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $7,902 −$12 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $6,362 −$10 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $4,101 −$7 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $900 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $4,808 −$7 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $4,898 −$6 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $3,701 −$5 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 15 $200 $0 -0%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $300 −$4 -2%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $400 −$2 -0%
Will Milwaukee Bucks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $500 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $3,401 −$5 -0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $1,400 −$1 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $300 +$2 +1%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $900 −$2 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $900 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $6,601 −$7 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $2,101 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $950 −$2 -0%
Will Matteo Berrettini be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 13 $1,100 −$2 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $3,401 −$7 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $4,968 −$7 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 11 $7,940 −$10 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $3,701 −$5 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,500 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,900 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $2,201 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 08 $32 +$23 +71%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $500 +$1 +0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $1,501 −$3 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $4,231 −$5 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $2,101 −$3 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $1,700 −$3 -0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $4,679 −$6 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $500 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $3,600 −$5 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $4,061 −$7 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $3,351 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $2,501 −$4 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $2,900 −$5 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,901 −$6 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $4,411 −$6 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $14,075 −$19 -0%
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 02 $3 $0 +9%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $2,000 −$3 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $1,900 −$2 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,300 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $600 1h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,200 1h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,110 1h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,100 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $899 1h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,198 1h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,897 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $900 2d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,200 2d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,901 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $899 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $899 2d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $900 2d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,398 2d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,400 4d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $900 4d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $900 4d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $900 4d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,598 4d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,497 4d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,600 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2,501 6d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $200 6d
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 98¢ $296 6d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $398 6d
Will Milwaukee Bucks win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $499 6d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $999 6d
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $1,399 6d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 7d
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,400 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,265.03 · official $6,265.25 (match) · 1352 history records