Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:58:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c99…0c88 sports 410 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (785 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$58,963 (+14%) realized +$61,642 · open −$2,679
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%215W / 178L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$1,040per market
Trades / day784.5pace
Fees−$6,168est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9,308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$12,872
other 0% −$576
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (785 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 393 +6.5% -3.7% 55% 51% -6.1%
≤30d 393 +6.5% -3.7% 55% 51% -6.1%
≤90d 393 +6.5% -3.7% 55% 51% -6.1%
all 393 +6.5% -3.7% 55% 51% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover784.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.7% 51% -6.1%
10% -12.9% 47% -15.1%
15% ← realistic here -21.3% 40% -23.3%
20% -29.0% 33% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$1,328) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$460 vs −$472 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$9,308
Realized+$61,642
Unrealized−$2,679
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses215 / 178
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$6,168
Open positions18
Markets (closed)393 / 410
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$1,040
Trades / day784.5
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 393 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Natus Vincere 47¢ 100¢ $1,211 $2,598 +$1,387 (+115%)
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) G2 60¢ 100¢ $1,490 $2,499 +$1,009 (+68%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Felix Gill 65¢ 69¢ $1,321 $1,409 +$88 (+7%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 34¢ 52¢ $858 $1,290 +$432 (+50%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 57¢ 52¢ $1,425 $1,288 −$137 (-10%)
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Elias Ymer 49¢ 16¢ $639 $201 −$437 (-68%)
Set Handicap: Kasnikowski (-1.5) vs Giustino (+1.5) Giustino 51¢ 50¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Set 1 Winner: Kasnikowski vs Giustino Giustino 42¢ 50¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+19%)
Set 1 Winner: Hijikata vs Paul Paul 67¢ 0¢ $335 $2 −$333 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 66¢ 48¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-27%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 56¢ 0¢ $1,399 $1 −$1,398 (-100%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 10¢ 0¢ $231 $1 −$229 (-100%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Solary 6¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$58 (-99%)
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic Viktorija Golubic 46¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+115%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Aoi Ito 33¢ 0¢ $209 $0 −$208 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic Panna Udvardy 46¢ 0¢ $241 $0 −$241 (-100%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Galions 91¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 89¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Panna Udvardy vs. Viktorija Golubic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 40¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Over 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Solary 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner G2 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Natus Vincere 25¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $1,275 +$1,225 +96%
Set 1 Winner: Perricard vs Moutet Jun 15 $1,546 +$633 +41%
Set Handicap: Canas (-1.5) vs Jover (+1.5) Jun 15 $6 +$4 +67%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $10 +$6 +59%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $1,275 +$1,225 +96%
Nottingham 2: Anton Matusevich vs Arthur Gea Jun 15 $1,275 +$1,225 +96%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,242 +$2,160 +96%
Set Handicap: Bonzi (-1.5) vs Barrios (+1.5) Jun 15 $3 +$2 +86%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $1,330 +$1,340 +101%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal Jun 15 $6 +$4 +70%
Set 1 Winner: Gill vs Gaston Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Matusevich vs Gea Jun 15 $7 +$8 +122%
Milic vs. Faurel: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $94 +$77 +82%
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 15 $689 −$678 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $781 −$774 -99%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $4,122 +$878 +21%
Set 1 Winner: Mertens vs Samsonova Jun 15 $18 +$30 +163%
Set 1 Winner: Blinkova vs Preston Jun 15 $16 +$10 +62%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $1,825 +$675 +37%
Set Handicap: O'Connell (-1.5) vs Rocha (+1.5) Jun 15 $7 +$13 +206%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $2,472 −$147 -6%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $1,975 +$525 +27%
Set Handicap: Maia (-1.5) vs Vickery (+1.5) Jun 15 $6 +$9 +158%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $2,029 +$471 +23%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $4,285 +$763 +18%
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli Jun 15 $1,141 −$1,141 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Jover vs Canas Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $875 −$875 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Cobolli vs Tiafoe Jun 15 $16 +$9 +56%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $681 +$779 +114%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,324 −$1,148 -87%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $59 +$61 +104%
Set 1 Winner: Barrios vs Bonzi Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $568 +$306 +54%
Set Handicap: Deichmann (-1.5) vs Sobolieva (+1.5) Jun 15 $17 +$7 +39%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan Jun 15 $891 +$523 +59%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $64 −$63 -99%
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5) Jun 15 $70 +$99 +140%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $616 −$411 -67%
Paul vs. Svajda: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $59 +$29 +48%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Borges (+1.5) Jun 15 $18 +$20 +113%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $1,625 +$875 +54%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $1,525 +$975 +64%
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Nikola Bartunkova vs. Diana Shnaider: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $54 −$37 -68%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,350 −$1,350 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Sakatsume vs Maneiro Jun 15 $20 −$3 -15%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,043 +$1,682 +161%
Set 1 Winner: Bartunkova vs Shnaider Jun 15 $2 +$2 +156%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 40¢ $203 10m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 34¢ $5 10m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 34¢ $8 10m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 34¢ $157 10m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 34¢ $88 10m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 34¢ $17 10m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 34¢ $24 10m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 32¢ $165 11m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 32¢ $266 11m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 62¢ $14 15m
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Felix Gill 59¢ $262 17m
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Felix Gill 68¢ $906 24m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 89¢ $235 26m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 88¢ $77 29m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 10¢ $462 30m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $22 32m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 89¢ $35 32m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 89¢ $68 32m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 89¢ $37 32m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 86¢ $4 33m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 86¢ $9 33m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 21¢ $1 35m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 21¢ $21 35m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 21¢ $1 35m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 21¢ $10 35m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 21¢ $21 35m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 21¢ $437 35m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 21¢ $7 35m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 21¢ $1 35m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 21¢ $16 35m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,308.49 · official $9,330.30 (match) · 3500 history records