Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:29:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
0C 0x0c9e…f49e sports 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$81 (+27%) realized +$134 · open −$53
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$49
other 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+39.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +54.2% +39.5% 64% 64% +45.5%
≤30d 11 +54.2% +39.5% 64% 64% +45.5%
≤90d 11 +54.2% +39.5% 64% 64% +45.5%
all 11 +54.2% +39.5% 64% 64% +45.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +39.5% 64% +45.5%
10% +26.2% 64% +31.6%
15% +14.0% 64% +18.9%
20% +2.8% 64% +7.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +61% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt +61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$13 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.96 per $1 lost it wins $2.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$134
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)11 / 17
History coverage3d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 50¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 52¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 53¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 30¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$20 +101%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 +$15 +149%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$19 +188%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$19 +93%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$30 +194%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$20 +99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $14 +$25 +172%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 21m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $41 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 13h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 16h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 16h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $20 16h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $15 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $41 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $25 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $29 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $10 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $39 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $10 40h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 40h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 43h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $45 43h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $15 43h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $40 47h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $14 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $20 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 70¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.52 · official $61.52 (match) · 25 history records