Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:33:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c9e…2c7f sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$53 (-10%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -19.0% -26.8% 38% 38% -19.4%
≤30d 8 -19.0% -26.8% 38% 38% -19.4%
≤90d 8 -19.0% -26.8% 38% 38% -19.4%
all 8 -19.0% -26.8% 38% 38% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 38% -19.4%
10% -33.8% 38% -27.1%
15% -40.2% 38% -34.2%
20% -46.0% 38% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$55 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regula Jun 22 $102 −$49 -48%
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Re Jun 22 $102 +$98 +97%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gr Jun 22 $97 +$90 +93%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) Jun 21 $117 −$117 -100%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs TDK (+1.5) Jun 21 $25 −$25 -98%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $25 +$27 +106%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $76 −$75 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regula SELL KRÜ Spark 26¢ $53 1h
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Re SELL Leviatán Academy 100¢ $200 2h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regula BUY KRÜ Spark 48¢ $102 4h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gr SELL NAVI Junior 100¢ $187 6h
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Re BUY Leviatán Academy 50¢ $102 7h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gr BUY NAVI Junior 51¢ $97 24h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner BUY FOKUS 11¢ $10 33h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) BUY Paper Rex 46¢ $41 33h
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs TDK (+1.5) BUY 100 Thieves 48¢ $25 33h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner SELL Zero Tenacity 100¢ $52 33h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 55¢ $76 34h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 48¢ $25 34h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) BUY Paper Rex 46¢ $76 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records