Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:41:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0C
0x0ca3…8109
weather · 301 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,155 -74%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$851 · open −$304
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$276
Realized−$851
Unrealized−$304
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses4 / 192
Open positions112
Markets (closed)196 / 301
History coverage5d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day433.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 112 History 196 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$152
7 days−$851
14 days−$851
30 days−$851
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 13? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $16 $11 −$5 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $6 $9 +$4 (+60%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 14? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $5 $9 +$3 (+63%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 13? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 13? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+81%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+40%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C on June 12? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $16 $5 −$11 (-69%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 13? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+81%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+49%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $22 $4 −$18 (-82%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 13? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 14? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on June 9? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 9? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 9? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 6? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on May 23? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 9? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 9? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$41 +1486%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $34 −$33 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 11? Jun 10 $24 −$23 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 11? Jun 10 $60 −$59 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 10 $59 −$58 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 11? Jun 10 $40 −$40 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $99 −$98 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C or higher on June Jun 10 $21 −$21 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 11? Jun 10 $56 −$56 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 10? Jun 10 $42 −$41 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 11? Jun 10 $43 −$43 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 11? Jun 10 $69 −$69 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 36°C or higher on June 11? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 10? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 8? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 8? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 8? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 8? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$1,149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 9m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 9m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 9m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 11m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 11m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 11m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 6¢ $0 11m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 12m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 6¢ $1 13m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 6¢ $0 13m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 16m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 18m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 20m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 22m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 22m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 22m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 22m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 6¢ $0 22m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 23m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 23m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 23m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 23m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 23m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-69.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 196 -66.0% -69.3% 2% 2% -89.8%
≤30d 196 -66.0% -69.3% 2% 2% -89.8%
≤90d 196 -66.0% -69.3% 2% 2% -89.8%
all 196 -66.0% -69.3% 2% 2% -89.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover433.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -69.3% 2% -89.8%
10% ← realistic here -72.2% 2% -90.8%
15% -74.9% 2% -91.7%
20% -77.4% 2% -92.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $276.39 · official $276.42 (match) · 3500 history records