Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:25:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0C 0x0ca6…5aa7 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,720 (+18%) realized +$1,720 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,197per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$2,477
other 25% +$762
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -23.9% -31.1% 50% 50% -25.8%
≤30d 8 -23.9% -31.1% 50% 50% -25.8%
≤90d 8 -23.9% -31.1% 50% 50% -25.8%
all 8 -23.9% -31.1% 50% 50% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.1% 50% -25.8%
10% -37.7% 50% -32.9%
15% -43.7% 25% -39.4%
20% -49.2% 12% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$500 vs −$929 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,720
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage6d
Avg bet$1,197
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $2,791 −$2,772 -99%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $638 −$624 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $2,311 +$647 +28%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $145 +$152 +105%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $316 −$310 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2,355 +$762 +32%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,009 +$440 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $340 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $575 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $638 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $662 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $1,214 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $145 30h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $1,710 31h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $3 31h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 10¢ $10 31h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $598 31h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $316 31h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 75¢ $1,095 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 75¢ $1,261 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 69¢ $1,009 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records