Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:40:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0ca9…cc62 sports 131 markets active 4d ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$652 (-45%) realized −$652 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%52W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$11
14 days+$14
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$644
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +53.5% +38.8% 64% 64% +41.3%
≤30d 24 +27.6% +15.4% 50% 50% +18.2%
≤90d 131 -8.2% -16.9% 40% 37% -50.0%
all 131 -8.2% -16.9% 40% 37% -50.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 37% -50.0%
10% -24.9% 35% -54.8%
15% -32.1% 35% -59.2%
20% -38.8% 35% -63.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$652
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses52 / 79
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)131 / 131
History coverage68d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 131 Trades
no open positions (79 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 +$4 +216%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 12 $2 +$3 +188%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 12 $2 +$2 +140%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 12 $2 +$2 +114%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 12 $2 +$2 +97%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 12 $2 +$3 +140%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Cattolica: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Besiktas vs. Bahcesehir Koleji Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Hapoel Holon BC vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Unics Kazan vs. CSKA Moscow Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Valorant: 9z Team vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Jun 10 $2 +$3 +140%
Valorant: QoR vs FlyQuest (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Sta Jun 10 $2 +$3 +158%
Valorant: Division One vs YFP Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Jun 10 $2 +$3 +158%
Valorant: University War vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Re Jun 10 $2 +$4 +180%
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs M80 (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Jun 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Valorant: SaD Esports vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Jun 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? Jun 02 $1 +$3 +238%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $2 −$1 -98%
Will US Cremonese vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? May 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Yokohama F·Marinos vs. FC Mito Holly Hock end in a draw? May 10 $1 +$1 +114%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand May 10 $2 +$2 +119%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kiwoom Heroes May 10 $2 +$3 +140%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Kia Tigers May 10 $2 +$3 +146%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid PH vs Team Falcons PH (BO3) - MP May 10 $2 +$3 +165%
Will AC Nagano Parceiro vs. Fujieda MYFC end in a draw? May 10 $2 +$5 +262%
Will Wrexham AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw? May 10 $2 +$6 +276%
Will Auckland FC vs. Melbourne City FC end in a draw? May 10 $2 +$6 +291%
Will Inter Kashi FC vs. North East United FC end in a draw? May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will FK Oleksandriya vs. FK Kolos Kovalivka end in a draw? May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will FK Dinamo Makhachkala vs. FK Rostov end in a draw? May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Urawa Red Diamonds vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba end in a draw? May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will SG Dynamo Dresden vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern end in a draw? May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Holstein Kiel vs. Eintracht Braunschweig end in a draw? May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Sydney FC end in a draw? May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka, Women: Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka May 02 $1 −$1 -98%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Samsung Lions May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Incheon United FC vs. Gangwon FC end in a draw? May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Jeju SK FC vs. Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC end in a draw? May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC end in a draw? May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ipswich Town FC vs. Queens Park Rangers FC end in a draw? May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Hull City AFC vs. Norwich City FC end in a draw? May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Gamba Ōsaka vs. Vissel Kōbe end in a draw? May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Shimizu S-Pulse end in a draw? May 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $2 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 64¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 50¢ $2 5d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 31¢ $2 5d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY SSG Landers 41¢ $2 6d
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins BUY Lotte Giants 34¢ $2 6d
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 50¢ $2 6d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Doosan Bears 46¢ $2 6d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kiwoom Heroes 41¢ $2 6d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 51¢ $2 7d
Cattolica: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 39¢ $2 7d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Martin Landaluce 33¢ $2 7d
Besiktas vs. Bahcesehir Koleji BUY Bahcesehir Koleji 27¢ $1 8d
Hapoel Holon BC vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Holon BC 21¢ $1 8d
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. BUY Olympiacos B.C. 44¢ $2 8d
Unics Kazan vs. CSKA Moscow BUY Unics Kazan 26¢ $1 8d
Valorant: Division One vs YFP Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage BUY YFP Gaming 38¢ $2 16d
Valorant: QoR vs FlyQuest (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Sta BUY QoR 38¢ $2 16d
Valorant: 9z Team vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular BUY 9z Team 41¢ $2 16d
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs M80 (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 31¢ $2 16d
Valorant: SaD Esports vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage BUY NRG Academy 50¢ $2 16d
Valorant: University War vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Re BUY University War 35¢ $2 16d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 39d
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 39d
Will US Cremonese vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 39d
Will AC Nagano Parceiro vs. Fujieda MYFC end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 47d
Will Inter Kashi FC vs. North East United FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 47d
Will FK Oleksandriya vs. FK Kolos Kovalivka end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 47d
Will FK Dinamo Makhachkala vs. FK Rostov end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 192 history records