Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:33:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0caf…32cf politics 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-0%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%19W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$14
14 days−$22
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$6
politics 28% −$9
other 18% −$14
crypto 10% −$7
world 4% −$1
economics 4% −$2
culture 3% −$3
finance 2% −$12
tech 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.8% -10.2% 5% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 64 -0.6% -10.1% 6% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 110 -0.5% -10.0% 15% 0% -9.8%
all 128 -0.4% -9.9% 15% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses19 / 109
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage100d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 97¢ 97¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $22 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $145 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $264 $0 -0%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $76 −$1 -1%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $19 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $94 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 15 $43 $0 -1%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $109 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 14 $54 −$1 -2%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $165 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 13 $64 −$2 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $111 −$2 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $99 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $119 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $109 $0 -0%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 10 $51 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $481 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $11 $0 -2%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $166 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $62 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 07 $117 −$2 -2%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 06 $49 $0 +1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $117 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $60 −$1 -2%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 03 $49 $0 +0%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $45 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $54 −$1 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $35 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $147 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $117 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $425 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $41 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $53 $0 +1%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $133 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $51 1h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $22 1h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $22 8h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $54 9h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $54 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $59 17h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $60 21h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $50 21h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $50 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 27h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 33h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 34h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 42h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $7 42h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $19 42h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $19 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $52 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $53 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $43 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $43 2d
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $48 2d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $49 3d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $59 3d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $59 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 97¢ $43 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $42 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 93¢ $53 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $54 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.96 · official $50.96 (match) · 475 history records