Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0C 0x0cb1…9f20 sports 17 markets active 3h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$193 (+5%) realized +$241 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$1,102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$96
other 48% +$241
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -18.4% -26.2% 38% 38% -3.2%
≤30d 13 -18.4% -26.2% 38% 38% -3.2%
≤90d 13 -18.4% -26.2% 38% 38% -3.2%
all 13 -18.4% -26.2% 38% 38% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 38% -3.2%
10% -33.2% 31% -12.5%
15% -39.7% 23% -20.9%
20% -45.6% 15% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$222 vs −$114 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,102
Realized+$241
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions4
Markets (closed)13 / 17
History coverage4d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $500 $465 −$35 (-7%)
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Under 66¢ 64¢ $250 $239 −$11 (-4%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Over 29¢ 30¢ $200 $210 +$10 (+5%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $200 $187 −$13 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $254 −$8 -3%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $255 +$634 +248%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $505 +$241 +48%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$42 +82%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $276 +$96 +35%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 20 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $359 −$359 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $505 +$95 +19%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $51 −$34 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 2h
Will Senegal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 2h
Will Senegal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $306 4h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 66¢ $253 4h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $205 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $246 5h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $204 9h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $254 9h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $889 9h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $255 11h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $745 31h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $93 35h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $11 38h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 38h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 39h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $361 39h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $255 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 39h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 82¢ $600 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 68¢ $505 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 2d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals SELL Yes 16¢ $17 2d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $51 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,101.86 · official $1,109.24 (match) · 43 history records