Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:10:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0cb1…5286 other 875 markets active 1h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,751 (-2%) realized −$1,753 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%386W / 487L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$102
7 days−$91
14 days+$216
30 days−$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$952
sports 14% −$1,005
world 0% +$91
crypto 0% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.8% -13.8% 43% 43% -29.5%
≤30d 26 -5.0% -14.0% 42% 42% -18.1%
≤90d 295 -7.3% -16.2% 42% 40% -15.7%
all 873 -1.3% -10.7% 44% 43% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 43% -11.2%
10% -19.2% 42% -19.7%
15% -27.0% 40% -27.5%
20% -34.2% 35% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$99 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$1,753
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses386 / 487
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions2
Markets (closed)873 / 875
History coverage200d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 873 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $46 $49 +$3 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 487 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$102 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $43 −$2 -5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $102 −$101 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $48 +$52 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $43 +$57 +134%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $75 +$25 +33%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 03 $57 +$29 +51%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 03 $57 +$121 +211%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 03 $156 +$144 +92%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $91 +$14 +15%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 28 $28 −$1 -2%
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 27 $105 −$103 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Alex de Minaur May 27 $54 +$46 +86%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 27 $155 +$145 +93%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $39 −$38 -98%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $44 −$43 -98%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $53 −$52 -99%
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul May 22 $86 −$84 -98%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $63 −$62 -99%
Will Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $40 −$39 -98%
Geneva Open: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Michelsen May 19 $39 +$61 +158%
Hamburg European Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alex de Minaur May 19 $39 +$61 +158%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $121 −$118 -98%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $36 +$40 +112%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $50 +$83 +165%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $58 +$30 +52%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $46 +$34 +73%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $50 +$30 +61%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $46 +$40 +88%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $47 +$1 +2%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $55 −$45 -81%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 17 $58 −$57 -99%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? May 17 $28 +$29 +104%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $50 +$17 +35%
Will Everton FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw? May 17 $27 +$6 +22%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev May 17 $103 +$57 +55%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $63 −$62 -99%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $33 −$32 -98%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $23 −$23 -98%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $155 −$151 -98%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $52 −$50 -98%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $101 −$99 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi May 15 $103 −$101 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $100 −$98 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $63 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 40¢ $39 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $43 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $48 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 42¢ $43 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $34 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 80¢ $80 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 21¢ $21 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $38 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $38 6d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 69¢ $103 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 45¢ $91 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 72¢ $36 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Frances Tiafoe 73¢ $11 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Frances Tiafoe 73¢ $47 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 18¢ $18 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 38¢ $39 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 56¢ $57 17d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 39¢ $39 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga SELL Roman Andres Burruchaga 44¢ $26 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga BUY Roman Andres Burruchaga 27¢ $28 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.49 · official $105.50 (match) · 3247 history records