Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:59:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0cb2…0438 world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%5W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$2
politics 20% $0
crypto 7% $0
economics 6% $0
sports 5% $0
other 5% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.3% -9.8% 17% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 10 -0.4% -9.8% 10% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 10 -0.4% -9.8% 10% 0% -9.9%
all 34 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses5 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage269d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 44¢ 44¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $46 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $151 +$1 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $89 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $45 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $43 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $44 −$1 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $48 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $69 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 09 $75 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 09 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 08 $61 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 04 $22 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Oct 04 $6 $0 -1%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 02 $27 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $23 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Oct 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 27 $24 $0 -1%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $25 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 26 $5 $0 +2%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Sep 23 $28 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $46 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $46 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $46 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $46 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $5 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $5 40h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $41 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $46 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $46 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $45 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $45 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $22 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $41 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $43 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $29 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $14 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $43 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $38 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.00 (match) · 163 history records