Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:28:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0C 0x0cb3…32e6 crypto 382 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,444 (-6%) realized −$3,418 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate22%82W / 298L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 58d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$11,561
world 6% +$394
other 1% +$124
sports 0% +$520
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-57.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -42.1% -47.6% 18% 18% -11.6%
≤30d 61 -55.5% -59.7% 15% 15% -40.5%
≤90d 380 -53.5% -57.9% 22% 21% -29.2%
all 380 -53.5% -57.9% 22% 21% -29.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -57.9% 21% -29.2%
10% ← realistic here -61.9% 18% -36.0%
15% -65.6% 17% -42.2%
20% -69.0% 15% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -42% → late -65% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$145 vs −$75 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$3,418
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses82 / 298
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)380 / 382
History coverage58d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 380 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 6¢ $40 $14 −$26 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 276 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 −$34 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$418 +408%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$97 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $99 −$97 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $87 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$38 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $79 −$76 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $109 +$69 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $141 −$100 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $71 −$53 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$34 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$6 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$21 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$4 -18%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $72 +$122 +169%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$99 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$131 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$34 -95%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $303 +$151 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 19 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 19 $642 −$625 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 19 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 19 $185 −$29 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 19 $33 −$31 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 19 $103 −$75 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 19 $52 +$52 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 19 $54 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 19 $388 −$25 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 19 $204 +$189 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 19 $229 −$15 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 19 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 19 $240 −$160 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 19 $30 −$29 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $502 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $85 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 3h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $84 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $18 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $18 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $18 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $17 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $82 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $360 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $84 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $18 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $18 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $18 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $18 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $79 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.70 · official $113.70 (match) · 1353 history records