Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:46:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0cb7…7a94 other 287 markets active 1h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$122 (-1%) realized −$104 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%123W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$388now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$463
7 days−$246
14 days−$2,465
30 days−$2,175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$993
sports 38% −$975
world 4% −$285
politics 2% +$46
crypto 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -7.5% -16.4% 56% 56% -26.6%
≤30d 67 -54.8% -59.1% 27% 27% -47.5%
≤90d 108 -21.8% -29.3% 39% 39% -17.7%
all 277 -11.7% -20.1% 44% 44% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 44% -10.7%
10% -27.8% 39% -19.3%
15% -34.7% 35% -27.1%
20% -41.1% 30% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$44 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$388
Realized−$104
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses123 / 154
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions6
Markets (closed)277 / 287
History coverage200d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 277 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $189 $187 −$2 (-1%)
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 61¢ 58¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $37 $14 −$23 (-62%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 29 $162 +$27 +16%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $331 −$330 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $14 −$14 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $50 +$22 +44%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $50 +$22 +44%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$51 +100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $81 +$62 +77%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $36 +$67 +188%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $81 +$59 +73%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $217 +$66 +30%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $101 −$100 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 +$99 +49%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$60 +60%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $36 −$35 -98%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $61 −$60 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $55 −$54 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-05-02? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Zverev (+1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910 end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-04-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $61 +$45 +74%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-05-02? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-16? Jun 16 $81 −$81 -100%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-16? Jun 16 $81 −$81 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $193 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $189 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 88¢ $331 4h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY 40¢ $41 4h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 48¢ $51 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $51 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $61 16h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 4d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $50 4d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $100 4d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 69¢ $50 4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY 30¢ $20 4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $101 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 4d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 56¢ $81 5d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY 49¢ $51 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 34¢ $36 7d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $283 7d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $217 7d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 7d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $81 7d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 7d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 43¢ $36 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 9d
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Daniel Altmaier 29¢ $31 9d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 10d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $387.97 · official $387.97 (match) · 866 history records