Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:42:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0C 0x0cba…92d3 world 30 markets active 23h ago coverage 26d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$2,796 (+2%) realized −$246 · open +$3,042
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$5,270per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$147,836now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$2,454
other 11% +$641
tech 7% +$128
politics 7% +$160
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +32.8% +20.2% 100% 50% -3.4%
≤30d 2 +32.8% +20.2% 100% 50% -3.4%
≤90d 2 +32.8% +20.2% 100% 50% -3.4%
all 2 +32.8% +20.2% 100% 50% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.2% 50% -3.4%
10% ← realistic here +8.7% 50% -12.6%
15% -1.8% 50% -21.1%
20% -11.5% 50% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$171 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$147,836
Realized−$246
Unrealized+$3,042
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions28
Markets (closed)2 / 30
History coverage26d
Avg bet$5,270
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 92¢ 96¢ $37,476 $39,053 +$1,576 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $25,100 $24,391 −$709 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 84¢ 92¢ $9,750 $10,674 +$924 (+9%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $7,980 $8,260 +$280 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $7,090 $7,226 +$137 (+2%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $6,182 $6,390 +$208 (+3%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $5,100 $5,139 +$39 (+1%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $5,000 $5,135 +$135 (+3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $5,000 $5,022 +$22 (+0%)
NATO article 5 before 2027? No 90¢ 92¢ $4,900 $5,014 +$114 (+2%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? No 97¢ 98¢ $4,959 $5,002 +$42 (+1%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 80¢ 87¢ $3,700 $3,999 +$299 (+8%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $3,600 $3,642 +$42 (+1%)
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $3,500 $3,525 +$25 (+1%)
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $2,800 $2,821 +$21 (+1%)
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $2,100 $2,120 +$20 (+1%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,900 $1,915 +$15 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,800 $1,795 −$5 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $1,700 $1,720 +$20 (+1%)
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,310 $1,312 +$2 (+0%)
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 91¢ 96¢ $1,100 $1,151 +$51 (+5%)
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $800 $807 +$7 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 56¢ 44¢ $1,000 $771 −$229 (-23%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 95¢ 95¢ $440 $439 −$1 (-0%)
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $300 $303 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $5,010 +$325 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $30 +$18 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $3,000 23h
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $700 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 90¢ $3,462 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $21,000 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $2,000 38h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY No 88¢ $2,000 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $3,000 38h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $431 40h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $426 43h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $848 43h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $563 45h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $749 46h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $731 46h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $46 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $72 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $0 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $1 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $0 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $144 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 92¢ $4,500 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 80¢ $385 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 79¢ $202 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 79¢ $195 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $1,322 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 78¢ $385 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 78¢ $62 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 78¢ $2 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 78¢ $17 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 78¢ $103 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 77¢ $365 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147,835.67 · official $147,835.67 (match) · 134 history records