Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:37:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0C 0x0cbb…59fc sports 1078 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 115d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,971 (+2%) realized +$4,971 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate96%1049W / 47L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$285per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$118est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 116d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$2,095
other 1% +$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -41.1% -46.7% 57% 7% -32.4%
≤30d 105 +2.3% -7.4% 75% 10% -15.0%
≤90d 387 +6.3% -3.8% 90% 6% -9.3%
all 1096 +2.6% -7.2% 96% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 2% -9.8%
10% -16.1% 1% -18.4%
15% -24.2% 1% -26.3%
20% -31.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$155 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,971
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses1049 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$118
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1096 / 1078
History coverage116d ⚠
Avg bet$285
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1096 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Charleston Cougars (-3.5) Jun 18 $140 −$140 -100%
1H Spread: Celtics (-6.5) Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $87 −$87 -100%
Xavier Musketeers vs. St. John's Red Storm Jun 18 $108 −$108 -100%
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Ole Miss Rebels: O/U 151.5 Jun 18 $90 −$90 -100%
Radford Highlanders vs. High Point Panthers: O/U 163.5 Jun 18 $121 −$121 -100%
Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks vs. New Hampshire Wildcats Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Magic vs. Kings: O/U 226.5 Jun 18 $390 −$390 -100%
North Texas Mean Green vs. Tulane Green Wave: O/U 134.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
1H Spread: Celtics (-4.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. UTEP Miners Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-17.5) Jun 18 $77 −$77 -100%
Magic vs. Kings: O/U 225.5 Jun 18 $891 −$891 -100%
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Oklahoma Sooners Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Rice Owls vs. Wichita State Shockers Jun 18 $187 −$340 -182%
1H Spread: Celtics (-5.5) Jun 18 $83 −$83 -100%
Spread: Ohio Bobcats (-3.5) Jun 18 $137 −$137 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) Jun 18 $437 +$8 +2%
Spread: PortlandFire (-3.5) Jun 18 $198 +$2 +1%
Cangrejeros de Santurce vs. Osos de Manati Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Capitanes de Arecibo vs. Mets de Guaynabo Jun 18 $12 $0 +1%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-8.5) Jun 18 $114 +$1 +1%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 178.5 Jun 18 $154 +$21 +14%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 Jun 18 $306 +$37 +12%
Criollos de Caguas vs. Gigantes de Carolina: O/U 180.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Criollos de Caguas vs. Gigantes de Carolina Jun 17 $64 $0 +0%
Spread: Criollos de Caguas (-7.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Aguada Santeros vs. Indios de Mayaguez Jun 17 $74 $0 +0%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Mets de Guaynabo vs. Cangrejeros de Santurce Jun 16 $152 +$2 +1%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $27 $0 +2%
Vaqueros de Bayamon vs. Atleticos de San German Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Gigantes de Carolina vs. Cangrejeros de Santurce Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $8 +$2 +18%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) Jun 14 $486 +$8 +2%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 Jun 13 $54 +$1 +1%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $18 +$2 +10%
Osos de Manati vs. Vaqueros de Bayamon Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $4,193 +$7 +0%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-4.5) Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 169.5 Jun 11 $29 +$1 +5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $61 −$61 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $9 $0 -4%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 Jun 09 $62 +$1 +1%
Quimsa vs. Gimnasia Jun 09 $266 +$60 +23%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $854 +$146 +17%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 160.5 Jun 06 $18 $0 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 201.5 Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 206.5 Jun 06 $34 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 99¢ $5 1h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 99¢ $19 1h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-8.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 99¢ $20 1h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 99¢ $20 1h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 99¢ $7 1h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 98¢ $386 1h
Spread: PortlandFire (-3.5) BUY PortlandFire 99¢ $198 1h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-8.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 99¢ $94 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 178.5 BUY Over 99¢ $136 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 178.5 BUY Over 48¢ $18 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 89¢ $306 1h
Cangrejeros de Santurce vs. Osos de Manati BUY Cangrejeros de Santurce 100¢ $43 3h
Capitanes de Arecibo vs. Mets de Guaynabo BUY Capitanes de Arecibo 98¢ $2 3h
Capitanes de Arecibo vs. Mets de Guaynabo BUY Capitanes de Arecibo 99¢ $10 3h
Criollos de Caguas vs. Gigantes de Carolina BUY Criollos de Caguas 100¢ $64 27h
Spread: Criollos de Caguas (-7.5) BUY Criollos de Caguas 100¢ $50 27h
Criollos de Caguas vs. Gigantes de Carolina: O/U 180.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 27h
Aguada Santeros vs. Indios de Mayaguez BUY Aguada Santeros 100¢ $64 27h
Aguada Santeros vs. Indios de Mayaguez BUY Aguada Santeros 99¢ $10 27h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 2d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 91¢ $0 2d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 91¢ $27 2d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 89¢ $1 2d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 89¢ $8 2d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 89¢ $9 2d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 90¢ $9 2d
Mets de Guaynabo vs. Cangrejeros de Santurce BUY Cangrejeros de Santurce 99¢ $119 2d
Mets de Guaynabo vs. Cangrejeros de Santurce BUY Cangrejeros de Santurce 97¢ $33 2d
Vaqueros de Bayamon vs. Atleticos de San German BUY Vaqueros de Bayamon 99¢ $5 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 85¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records