Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:26:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0C 0x0cbb…2fb6 crypto 732 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$203 (+1%) realized +$203 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate66%481W / 251L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$105
7 days+$198
14 days+$198
30 days+$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$79
other 0% +$28
politics 0% −$3
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +3.1% -6.8% 97% 8% -8.4%
≤30d 66 +3.1% -6.8% 97% 8% -8.4%
≤90d 732 -4.2% -13.3% 66% 33% -9.1%
all 732 -4.2% -13.3% 66% 33% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 33% -9.1%
10% -21.6% 25% -17.8%
15% -29.2% 16% -25.7%
20% -36.1% 9% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$203
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses481 / 251
Open positions0
Markets (closed)732 / 732
History coverage89d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 732 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $28 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $281 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $282 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $279 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $275 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 22 $274 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $271 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $274 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $269 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $255 +$13 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $367 −$345 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $211 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $569 +$5 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $565 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $561 +$34 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $521 +$60 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $450 +$44 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $434 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 21 $426 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $423 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $354 +$10 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $410 +$7 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 20 $234 +$16 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $133 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $402 +$6 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $382 +$4 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $386 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $362 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $382 +$12 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $367 +$12 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $229 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $337 +$51 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $306 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $307 +$7 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $290 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $97 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $283 +$11 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $279 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $280 +$19 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $266 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $197 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $254 +$7 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $246 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $258 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $242 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $18 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 19 $241 +$5 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $281 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $282 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $279 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $275 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $274 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $271 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $274 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $269 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $255 28h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 6¢ $367 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $211 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $569 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $565 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $561 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $521 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $450 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $434 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $426 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $423 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $354 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $410 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $234 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $133 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $402 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $382 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $386 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $362 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $382 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $367 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2143 history records