Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:35:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0C 0x0cbb…f8a3 sports 524 markets active 1h ago coverage 370d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$228 (+0%) realized +$259 · open −$31
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate48%250W / 273L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$310per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1,064est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$287
7 days−$8,505
14 days−$6,811
30 days−$1,635
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$227
other 9% −$402
crypto 6% −$831
culture 5% −$419
politics 5% +$615
world 0% −$56
tech 0% −$2
weather 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -32.7% -39.1% 23% 15% -55.3%
≤30d 61 -2.3% -11.6% 41% 39% -13.1%
≤90d 87 -1.5% -10.9% 43% 41% +3.2%
all 523 -5.4% -14.4% 48% 39% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 39% -10.0%
10% -22.6% 36% -18.6%
15% -30.1% 32% -26.5%
20% -36.9% 27% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$172 vs −$161 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

370d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$259
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses250 / 273
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$1,064
Open positions1
Markets (closed)523 / 524
History coverage370d
Avg bet$310
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 523 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Over 58¢ 44¢ $135 $104 −$31 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $254 +$246 +97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $230 +$314 +137%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $686 +$53 +8%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $327 −$327 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2,036 −$405 -20%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $7,035 −$3,017 -43%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $796 −$796 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $299 −$7 -2%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $101 −$101 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 11 $124 −$124 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 11 $2,132 −$2,132 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 11 $2,199 −$2,199 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $588 −$10 -2%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $3,995 +$1,671 +42%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $861 −$539 -63%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $1,202 +$819 +68%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $1,466 −$258 -18%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 01 $117 −$19 -16%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 01 $132 −$132 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 01 $101 +$44 +44%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $506 +$930 +184%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 31 $112 +$98 +88%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) May 31 $51 +$45 +89%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) May 31 $101 +$65 +64%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) May 31 $46 −$22 -48%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 31 $89 −$82 -91%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 31 $44 −$44 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 31 $41 −$41 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $509 +$642 +126%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $251 −$62 -25%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $1,573 +$1,495 +95%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $28 +$8 +30%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $41 +$8 +19%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 30 $116 −$116 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 30 $604 −$604 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) May 30 $114 +$133 +116%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $103 +$96 +93%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $94 −$94 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 29 $514 +$596 +116%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5) May 28 $169 +$31 +18%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) May 28 $102 +$89 +88%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 May 28 $827 −$827 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 28 $874 −$874 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 28 $200 −$83 -41%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) May 28 $1,061 +$1,136 +107%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 27 $508 −$439 -87%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 May 24 $161 −$41 -26%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 24 $205 −$31 -15%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 May 24 $176 +$137 +78%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants May 24 $291 +$98 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $61 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $76 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $499 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $254 6h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $544 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $230 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 SELL Over 37¢ $349 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $0 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $3 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $46 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $44 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $29 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $8 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $36 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $23 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $201 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $686 18h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $327 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,435 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,171 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $1,166 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $4,799 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $2,852 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2,236 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes $196 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $866 6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 15¢ $129 6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 41¢ $668 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 59¢ $291 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $512 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.29 · official $103.12 · 1653 history records